A 45.8% / 25.9% / 28.4% split off ratings of 1482 and 1485. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 0.84 against 0.80, conceding rates of 0.93 against 0.93.
Between best and worst outcome there is 19.9 points of daylight. Point estimate: 1-1. Mirassol's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 41.2%. Raw profiles are 0.84 and 0.93 against 0.80 and 0.93. Most likely single result is Corinthians on 45.8%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 37 and 35 matches. On expected goals the model has it 1.16 against 1.00. The model gives 74.2% to someone winning. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 40.0% / 27.1% / 32.8%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.4%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The two ratings differ by 3 points. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -18 and -15. The gap between first and second outcome is 17.4 points, Corinthians ahead of Mirassol.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Corinthians: one draw and four defeats over five games; six goals scored, 13 conceded, without a win. Vasco da Gama were their latest opponents, away on 24 October: a 3-2 defeat.
2-3 was Corinthians's result against Vasco da Gama on 24 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Corinthians lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 19 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Corinthians with Vitória. Corinthians drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Palmeiras (Brasileirão Série A), Corinthians finished 1-4 on 11 October. Their score comprised one goal, against four from the opposition. 7 October: Corinthians lost 1-2 against Internacional away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Fluminense in Brasileirão Série A, Corinthians scored one and conceded three on 20 September; the at home result was 1-3.
33 points in 32 matches put Corinthians 18th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
six goals for and three against accompanied Mirassol's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. On 24 October, Mirassol recorded a 1-1 draw hosting São Paulo.
The 24 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Mirassol with São Paulo. Mirassol drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Internacional (Brasileirão Série A), Mirassol finished 2-0 on 16 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 11 October: Mirassol lost 0-1 against Bahia away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Bragantino in Brasileirão Série A, Mirassol scored one and conceded one on 7 October; the away from home result was 1-1. Mirassol's at home game on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 2-0 against Botafogo, with two goals for and zero against.
Mirassol: 16th, 37 points, 32 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-1 home win for Mirassol on 3 May.
After the match
Corinthians beat Mirassol 2-0 on 30 October 2026. Bidu opened the scoring 58 minutes into the game for Corinthians, set up by Matheuzinho, to make it 1-0. Kaio César added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Corinthians, set up by Rodrigo Garro, to make it 2-0. Bruno Oliveira (24') was sent off. Edson Carioca (43'), André Ramalho (76') and Matheuzinho (83') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Mirassol just 3 rating points ahead of Corinthians, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. Corinthians won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. Corinthians: two yellow cards. Corinthians made five changes. The card tally for Mirassol was one yellow card and one red card. Mirassol made five changes. Corinthians finished with a clean sheet.