Prior record: 12-6-7 across 25 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 3-1 in Brasileirão Série A. Currently 1567 against 1580 — a 44.3% / 26.2% / 29.5% split.
Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 39 and 35 matches. Goal expectation splits 1.46 to 1.49. Mineiro sits 14.8 points above the next most likely result. The edge is split: Cruzeiro scores at the higher rate (1.21 to 1.04), Mineiro concedes at the lower (0.91 to 0.95). The three results cover 18.1 points. A 13-point difference on the rating scale. A decisive result carries 73.8% against 26.2% for the draw. Attack/defence pairs: 1.04/0.91 and 1.21/0.95. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Top of the distribution: Mineiro, 44.3%. The higher rating expects 42.6% of the points, the lower 57.4%. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.4% — not a strong call. Versus the 1500 seed: +67 and +80. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Higher rating: the away side. The tie closed out 0-1. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Mineiro came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding six. A 3-2 defeat away to Flamengo (26 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Atletico Torque on 14 October.
26 October: Mineiro lost 2-3 against Flamengo away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring two goals and allowing three. Against Atletico Torque in Copa Sudamericana, Mineiro scored zero and conceded two on 21 October; the away from home result was 0-2. Mineiro's at home game on 17 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-0 against Coritiba, with one goal for and zero against. On 14 October, Atletico Torque faced Mineiro in Copa Sudamericana: Mineiro won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. Brasileirão Série A, 11 October brought a home meeting with Santos; Mineiro won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Mineiro: 7th, 50 points, 32 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Cruzeiro came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 12 goals and conceding seven. A 1-0 win at home to Clube do Remo (23 October) was their most recent result.
Brasileirão Série A, 23 October brought a home meeting with Clube do Remo; Cruzeiro won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Cruzeiro visited Grêmio on 18 October (Brasileirão Série A) and won 4-2; their goals totalled four, compared with two conceded. Bragantino hosted Cruzeiro (Brasileirão Série A) on 13 October. For Cruzeiro, the score was 2-4: two goals scored, four allowed. 2-0 was Cruzeiro's result against São Paulo on 8 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Cruzeiro won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 20 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Cruzeiro with Vitória. Cruzeiro won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one.
Cruzeiro: 5th, 54 points, 32 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-1 away win for Mineiro on 3 May and a 0-0 draw at Cruzeiro on 11 August 2024.
After the match
Cruzeiro edged past Mineiro 1-0 on 29 October 2026. Kaio Jorge opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Cruzeiro, set up by Keny Arroyo, to make it 1-0. 7 players were booked, among them Natanael (24'), zé Lucas (25'), Matheus Pereira (42'), Matheus Henrique (69'), Jonathan (83') and William (85'). On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Cruzeiro only a 29.5% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. The card tally for Mineiro was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Mineiro. Alan Minda entered for Mineiro at 46 minutes and later was booked. Cruzeiro: five yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Cruzeiro. Matheus Henrique, on in the 46th minute, was booked. Cruzeiro finished with a clean sheet.