On file: 11 previous meetings dating to 2020, 15-14 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-0 in Brasileirão Série A. Currently 1671 against 1510 — a 68.5% / 20.1% / 11.4% split.
By expected share of the points: 78.6% and 21.4%. Ratings sit 161 apart. 79.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The distribution runs from 68.5% down to 11.4%. 68.5% goes to Palmeiras, the model's lean. The ratings draw on 39 and 37 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The forecast we stored before the match was 67.3% / 20.5% / 12.3%. It landed. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +171 and +10. First to second is a 48.4-point step, Palmeiras over the draw. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 18.1% — 0-0 is next at 13.4%. Palmeiras is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 0.92 in attack, 0.53 to 0.83 in defence. Raw profiles are 1.09 and 0.53 against 0.92 and 0.83. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The match finished 2-0. Expected goals sit at 1.35 against 0.66.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Palmeiras came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding three. A 1-0 defeat at home to Fluminense (22 October) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Corinthians on 11 October.
The 22 October fixture (Copa Libertadores) paired Palmeiras with Fluminense. Palmeiras lost 0-1 at home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Paranaense (Brasileirão Série A), Palmeiras finished 2-0 on 17 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 15 October: Palmeiras won 2-1 against Fluminense away from home in Copa Libertadores, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Corinthians in Brasileirão Série A, Palmeiras scored four and conceded one on 11 October; the at home result was 4-1. Palmeiras's at home game on 9 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-0 against Bahia, with one goal for and zero against.
Palmeiras stood 2nd in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 66 points from 31 matches.
Bragantino: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; seven goals scored, seven conceded. Clube do Remo were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 1-1 draw.
Bragantino visited Clube do Remo on 18 October (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Cruzeiro travelled to face Bragantino (Brasileirão Série A) on 13 October. For Bragantino, the score was 4-2: four goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Bragantino's result against Mirassol on 7 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Bragantino drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 3 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Bragantino with Mineiro. Bragantino lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Flamengo (Brasileirão Série A), Bragantino finished 1-2 on 20 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition.
41 points in 31 matches put Bragantino 10th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 away win for Palmeiras on 26 April and a 0-0 draw at Bragantino on 5 October 2024.
After the match
Palmeiras beat Bragantino 2-0 on 24 October 2026. Mauricio opened the scoring from the penalty spot 56 minutes into the game for Palmeiras to make it 1-0. Agustin Giay added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Palmeiras, set up by José Manuel López, to make it 2-0. Tiago Volpi (31'), José Herrera (44'), Gustavo Gómez (62'), Agustin Giay (79'), Vinicius (81') and Gabriel (81') were booked. 68.5% is Palmeiras's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. The card tally for Palmeiras was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Palmeiras. José Manuel López provided an assist following entry for Palmeiras in the 64th minute. four yellow cards went to Bragantino. Bragantino: five substitutions. Gabriel was booked following entry for Bragantino in the 78th minute. A clean sheet for Palmeiras.