The model declines to call this one. 1485 plays 1527, and the three-way split of 39.8% / 27.2% / 33.1% is about as close to undecided as its output gets.
Honours split: 0.88 forward for São Paulo, 0.93 back for Mirassol. Raw profiles are 0.80 and 0.93 against 0.88 and 0.93. Someone wins 72.9% of the time by this model. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 53.3% to 46.7%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -15 and +27. The underlying goal expectation is 1.10 for Mirassol, 1.10 for São Paulo. First to second is a 6.7-point step, Mirassol over São Paulo. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 41.4% / 26.8% / 31.8%. The match did not follow it. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The rating gap itself is 42 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-1 in Brasileirão Série A, which is too little history to weigh. Result on the day: 1-1. Reduced to one result that is 1-1.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Mirassol's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 4 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 win at home to Internacional on 16 October.
Playing at home against Internacional (Brasileirão Série A), Mirassol finished 2-0 on 16 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 11 October: Mirassol lost 0-1 against Bahia away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Bragantino in Brasileirão Série A, Mirassol scored one and conceded one on 7 October; the away from home result was 1-1. Mirassol's at home game on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 2-0 against Botafogo, with two goals for and zero against. On 13 September, Vitória faced Mirassol in Brasileirão Série A: Mirassol drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two.
36 points in 31 matches put Mirassol 14th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
São Paulo: three wins and two defeats over five games; five goals scored, five conceded. Vasco da Gama were their latest opponents, at home on 18 October: a 1-0 win.
On 18 October, Vasco da Gama faced São Paulo in Brasileirão Série A: São Paulo won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Brasileirão Série A, 11 October brought a home meeting with Vitória; São Paulo won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. São Paulo visited Cruzeiro on 8 October (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Santos travelled to face São Paulo (Brasileirão Série A) on 2 October. For São Paulo, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-0 was São Paulo's result against Internacional on 20 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; São Paulo won, with one scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed São Paulo 9th after 31 matches and 42 points.
The last recorded meeting was a 1-0 home win for São Paulo on 26 April.
After the match
Mirassol and São Paulo drew 1-1 on 24 October 2026. Rafael Monteiro (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Mirassol to make it 1-0. Pedro Lima levelled it in the 39th minute for São Paulo, set up by Damian Bobadilla, to make it 1-1. Djhordney (17'), Iago Borduchi (26'), Carlos Eduardo (61'), Willian Machado (70') and Wallisson Luiz (83') were booked. Mirassol picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Mirassol was five. After coming on for Mirassol in minute 67, Wallisson Luiz was booked. two yellow cards went to São Paulo. The substitution total for São Paulo was five.