On file: 24 previous meetings dating to 2010, 36-27 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in Brasileirão Série A. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1455 and 1435 — 20 points — for a 49.5% / 25.0% / 25.5% split.
Most likely single result is Internacional on 49.5%. The three results cover 24.5 points. Result on the day: 3-0. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -45 and -65. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 45.8% / 25.8% / 28.3%. It landed. The model gives 75.0% to someone winning. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.55 and 1.13. The gap between first and second outcome is 24.0 points, Internacional ahead of Botafogo. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Behind them are 33 and 35 rated matches. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.0%. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The four component numbers read 0.87, 1.00, 0.83, 1.20. Expected shares 62.0% against 38.0% on Elo. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Both components point the same way, toward Internacional: 0.87 to 0.83 going forward, 1.00 to 1.20 going back.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Internacional's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 6 conceded. Latest: a 2-0 defeat away to Mirassol on 16 October.
Internacional visited Mirassol on 16 October (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Grêmio hosted Internacional (Brasileirão Série A) on 11 October. For Internacional, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Internacional's result against Corinthians on 7 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Internacional won, with two scored to one conceded. The 20 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Internacional with São Paulo. Internacional lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Chapecoense (Brasileirão Série A), Internacional finished 2-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Internacional 17th after 31 matches and 32 points.
Botafogo came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding seven. A 1-0 win at home to Chapecoense (17 October) was their most recent result.
Chapecoense travelled to face Botafogo (Brasileirão Série A) on 17 October. For Botafogo, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Botafogo's result against Coritiba on 12 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Botafogo drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 7 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Botafogo with Vasco da Gama. Botafogo lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Mirassol (Brasileirão Série A), Botafogo finished 0-2 on 19 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against two from the opposition. 16 September: Botafogo won 3-2 against Grêmio at home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring three goals and allowing two.
Botafogo stood 11th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 39 points from 31 matches.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-2 draw at Botafogo on 25 April and a 1-0 away win for Botafogo on 5 December 2024.
After the match
Internacional comfortably beat Botafogo 3-0 on 24 October 2026. Matheus Bahia opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Internacional to make it 1-0. Juninho added to the tally in the 42nd minute for Internacional to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Internacional extended the lead through Alexandro Bernabei 66 minutes into the game, set up by Alerrandro, to make it 3-0. Alvaro Montoro (62'), Nahuel Ferraresi (85') and Marçal (90') were booked. The substitution total for Internacional was five. three yellow cards went to Botafogo. Botafogo: five substitutions. Internacional kept their opponents scoreless.