The ratings are far apart — 1564 against 1399, 165 points — and the model turns that into 68.9% / 20.0% / 11.1%.
Distance between the ratings: 165 points, wide on this scale. The model's preferred outcome is Cruzeiro at 68.9%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 65.9% / 20.9% / 13.2%. That call matched the result. The home side is rated higher. There is no trade-off to weigh: Cruzeiro scores at the higher rate (1.24 to 0.74) and concedes at the lower (1.01 to 1.09). Behind them are 34 and 32 rated matches. xG: 2.02 to 1.01. The match finished 1-0. The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 10.0% leads, but only just. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2026, 1-0 in Brasileirão Série A. Cruzeiro leads the distribution by 48.9 points over the draw. Raw profiles are 1.24 and 1.01 against 0.74 and 1.09. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. Most and least likely outcomes are 57.8 points apart. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +64 and -101.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Before the match
Cruzeiro: three wins and two defeats over five games; 12 goals scored, nine conceded. Grêmio were their latest opponents, away on 18 October: a 4-2 win.
Against Grêmio in Brasileirão Série A, Cruzeiro scored four and conceded two on 18 October; the away from home result was 4-2. Cruzeiro's away from home game on 13 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 2-4 against Bragantino, with two goals for and four against. On 8 October, São Paulo faced Cruzeiro in Brasileirão Série A: Cruzeiro won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. Brasileirão Série A, 20 September brought an away meeting with Vitória; Cruzeiro won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Cruzeiro visited Santos on 13 September (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded.
51 points in 31 matches put Cruzeiro 5th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
four goals for and six against accompanied Clube do Remo's three draws and two defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 18 October, Clube do Remo recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Bragantino.
18 October: Clube do Remo drew 1-1 against Bragantino at home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Vasco da Gama in Brasileirão Série A, Clube do Remo scored zero and conceded zero on 10 October; the away from home result was 0-0. Clube do Remo's at home game on 7 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-1 against Grêmio, with one goal for and one against. On 19 September, Santos faced Clube do Remo in Brasileirão Série A: Clube do Remo lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Brasileirão Série A, 14 September brought an away meeting with Bahia; Clube do Remo lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded.
Clube do Remo: 19th, 26 points, 31 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 away win for Cruzeiro on 25 April.
After the match
Cruzeiro edged past Clube do Remo 1-0 on 23 October 2026. Fabrício Bruno opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for Cruzeiro, set up by Matheus Pereira, to make it 1-0. Patrick (50'), Zé Ivaldo (79') and Marcelinho (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Cruzeiro 165 points stronger than Clube do Remo. 68.9% is Cruzeiro's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Cruzeiro: four substitutions. three yellow cards went to Clube do Remo. The substitution total for Clube do Remo was five. Cruzeiro conceded no goals.