Match Report
Before the match
Coritiba: two draws and three defeats over five games; four goals scored, 14 conceded, failing to score in three of those games, without a win. Mineiro were their latest opponents, away on 17 October: a 1-0 defeat.
Against Mineiro in Brasileirão Série A, Coritiba scored zero and conceded one on 17 October; the away from home result was 0-1. Coritiba's at home game on 12 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-1 against Botafogo, with one goal for and one against. On 9 October, Fluminense faced Coritiba in Brasileirão Série A: Coritiba lost 0-4 away from home, having scored zero and conceded four. Brasileirão Série A, 19 September brought an away meeting with Vasco da Gama; Coritiba lost 0-5, a return of zero goals scored and five conceded. Coritiba hosted Paranaense on 12 September (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 3-3; their goals totalled three, compared with three conceded.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Coritiba 12th after 31 matches and 39 points.
Grêmio's previous five results comprised three draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 6 scored and 9 conceded, with no wins. Latest: a 4-2 defeat at home to Cruzeiro on 18 October.
Against Cruzeiro in Brasileirão Série A, Grêmio scored two and conceded four on 18 October; the at home result was 2-4. Grêmio's at home game on 11 October (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-1 against Internacional, with one goal for and one against. On 7 October, Clube do Remo faced Grêmio in Brasileirão Série A: Grêmio drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. Brasileirão Série A, 20 September brought a home meeting with Palmeiras; Grêmio drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Grêmio visited Botafogo on 16 September (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded.
31 points in 31 matches put Grêmio 18th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-0 home win for Grêmio on 26 April and a 2-1 away win for Grêmio on 1 November 2023.
After the match
Grêmio edged past Coritiba 1-0 on 26 October 2026. Martin Braithwaite opened the scoring in the 92nd minute for Grêmio, set up by Francis Amuzu, to make it 1-0. Tinga (40') was booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Coritiba just 13 rating points ahead of Grêmio, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Grêmio only a 26.3% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. The card tally for Coritiba was one yellow card. Coritiba made five changes. Grêmio: five substitutions. Martin Braithwaite, on in the 82nd minute, scored in minute 92. Grêmio kept their opponents scoreless.