Both components point the same way, toward Mirassol: 0.86 to 0.80 going forward, 0.90 to 1.04 going back. On rating it is 1505 against 1443, which the model resolves to 55.7% / 23.6% / 20.8%.
The four component numbers read 0.86, 0.90, 0.80, 1.04. Outcomes span 34.9 points. Goal expectation splits 1.32 to 0.97. 55.7% goes to Mirassol, the model's lean. Expected shares 67.5% against 32.5% on Elo. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The ratings draw on 33 and 31 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 44.9% / 26.1% / 29.1%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-0 on 13.4%. Mirassol sits 32.1 points above the next most likely result. A 62-point spread sits between the two figures. One recorded prior meeting: 2026, 2-1 in Brasileirão Série A. A single result carries no predictive load. The match finished 2-0. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Its point estimate is 1-0. Win-or-lose totals 76.5%; the draw takes the rest. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +5 and -57.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Mirassol came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding five. A 1-0 defeat away to Bahia (11 October) was their most recent result.
11 October: Mirassol lost 0-1 against Bahia away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Bragantino in Brasileirão Série A, Mirassol scored one and conceded one on 7 October; the away from home result was 1-1. Mirassol's at home game on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 2-0 against Botafogo, with two goals for and zero against. On 13 September, Vitória faced Mirassol in Brasileirão Série A: Mirassol drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two. Brasileirão Série A, 6 September brought an away meeting with Coritiba; Mirassol won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Mirassol stood 15th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 33 points from 30 matches.
Internacional's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 7 conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to Grêmio on 11 October.
1-1 was Internacional's result against Grêmio on 11 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Internacional drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 7 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Internacional with Corinthians. Internacional won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against São Paulo (Brasileirão Série A), Internacional finished 0-1 on 20 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Internacional won 2-1 against Chapecoense away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Santos in Brasileirão Série A, Internacional scored two and conceded three on 6 September; the at home result was 2-3.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Internacional 16th after 30 matches and 32 points.
Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 away win for Mirassol on 19 April.
After the match
Mirassol beat Internacional 2-0 on 16 October 2026. Carlos Eduardo opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for Mirassol, set up by Edson Carioca, to make it 1-0. André Luis added to the tally late on, in the 87th minute for Mirassol, set up by Fernandinho, to make it 2-0. Matheus Cunha (15') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Vitinho (43'), Neto Moura (45'), Bruno Gomes (57'), Rodrigo Villagra (61'), André Luis (77') and Johan Carbonero (81'). On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Mirassol are 62 points stronger than Internacional. Mirassol's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 55.7% for a win in this pairing. Mirassol: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Mirassol. Fernandinho entered for Mirassol at 68 minutes and later provided an assist. After coming on for Mirassol in minute 74, André Luis scored in minute 87 and was booked. six yellow cards and one red card went to Internacional. The substitution total for Internacional was five. Kauan, on in the 17th minute, was booked. Johan Carbonero entered for Internacional at 60 minutes and later was booked. A clean sheet for Mirassol.