On record: 25 meetings from 2010, 33-27 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-2 in Brasileirão Série A. History aside, the live ratings of 1394 and 1558 drive a 23.9% / 24.5% / 51.6% distribution.
Scorelines above 8%: 2. It ended 2-4. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -106 and +58. In absolute terms: Grêmio 0.82/1.17, Cruzeiro 1.27/1.07 on attack and defence. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. Expected shares 36.1% against 63.9% on Elo. Cruzeiro is ahead on each half — 1.27 to 0.82 in attack, 1.07 to 1.17 in defence. Most likely single result is Cruzeiro on 51.6%. The ratings draw on 33 and 33 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Cruzeiro holds a 27.1-point edge on the next outcome. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.6%. A 164-point spread sits between the two figures. Most and least likely outcomes are 27.7 points apart. The underlying goal expectation is 1.30 for Grêmio, 2.01 for Cruzeiro.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Grêmio's previous five results comprised three draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 7 conceded, with no wins. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Internacional on 11 October.
Grêmio hosted Internacional on 11 October (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Clube do Remo hosted Grêmio (Brasileirão Série A) on 7 October. For Grêmio, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-0 was Grêmio's result against Palmeiras on 20 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Grêmio drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 16 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Grêmio with Botafogo. Grêmio lost 2-3 away from home, netting two goals while conceding three. Playing at home against Vasco da Gama (Brasileirão Série A), Grêmio finished 1-2 on 12 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition.
31 points in 30 matches put Grêmio 18th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
Cruzeiro came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding eight. A 4-2 defeat away to Bragantino (13 October) was their most recent result.
The 13 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Cruzeiro with Bragantino. Cruzeiro lost 2-4 away from home, netting two goals while conceding four. Playing at home against São Paulo (Brasileirão Série A), Cruzeiro finished 2-0 on 8 October. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 20 September: Cruzeiro won 3-1 against Vitória away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Santos in Brasileirão Série A, Cruzeiro scored one and conceded two on 13 September; the away from home result was 1-2. Cruzeiro's at home game on 6 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 3-1 against Paranaense, with three goals for and one against.
Cruzeiro: 7th, 48 points, 30 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 home win for Cruzeiro on 18 April and a 1-1 draw at Cruzeiro on 28 November 2024.
After the match
Cruzeiro beat Grêmio 4-2 on 18 October 2026. Carlos Vinícius opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 17th minute for Grêmio to make it 1-0. Kaio Jorge levelled it in the 23rd minute for Cruzeiro, set up by Matheus Pereira, to make it 1-1. Grêmio regained the lead through Cristian Pavón in the 41st minute to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Cruzeiro drew level through Kaio Jorge 48 minutes into the game to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Cruzeiro took the lead through Kaio Jorge 61 minutes into the game, set up by William, to make it 3-2. João Marcelo added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Cruzeiro, set up by Gerson, to make it 4-2. Walter Kannemann (73') was sent off. João Marcelo (67'), Matheus Pereira (71'), Walter Kannemann (73') and Keny Arroyo (76') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Cruzeiro 164 points stronger than Grêmio. one yellow card and one red card went to Grêmio. Grêmio: four substitutions. Cruzeiro: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Cruzeiro. The scoring record shows one lead change. After trailing, Cruzeiro secured the win.