On file: 21 previous meetings dating to 2011, 29-19 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-2 in Brasileirão Série A. The live ratings are 1619 and 1450, giving 69.4% / 19.8% / 10.8%.
The home side is rated higher. The scoreline spread is even — 2-0 on 10.3% leads, but only just. The model's preferred outcome is Mineiro at 69.4%. A 58.6-point range top to bottom. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +119 and -50. The tie closed out 1-0. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither figure is thin: 36 and 31 matches respectively sit behind them. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 169 points. 80.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Its point estimate is 2-0. The gap between first and second outcome is 49.6 points, Mineiro ahead of the draw. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 79.4% to 20.6%. Neither component contradicts the other: Mineiro leads 1.15-0.88 forward and 0.80-1.32 back. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 55.2% / 23.7% / 21.1%. The result went the way that forecast pointed.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Mineiro: three wins and two draws over five games; nine goals scored, four conceded, unbeaten. Atletico Torque were their latest opponents, at home on 14 October: a 3-0 win.
Mineiro hosted Atletico Torque on 14 October (Copa Sudamericana) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Santos travelled to face Mineiro (Brasileirão Série A) on 11 October. For Mineiro, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 2-2 was Mineiro's result against Paranaense on 8 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Mineiro drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 3 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Mineiro with Bragantino. Mineiro won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Chapecoense (Brasileirão Série A), Mineiro finished 1-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
47 points in 30 matches put Mineiro 7th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
Coritiba arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats, scoring five goals and conceding 15. A 1-1 draw at home to Botafogo (12 October) was their most recent result.
The 12 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Coritiba with Botafogo. Coritiba drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Fluminense (Brasileirão Série A), Coritiba finished 0-4 on 9 October. Their score comprised zero goals, against four from the opposition. 19 September: Coritiba lost 0-5 against Vasco da Gama away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring zero goals and allowing five. Against Paranaense in Brasileirão Série A, Coritiba scored three and conceded three on 12 September; the at home result was 3-3. Coritiba's at home game on 6 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-2 against Mirassol, with one goal for and two against.
Coritiba stood 12th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 39 points from 30 matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 home win for Coritiba on 19 April and a 2-1 away win for Coritiba on 8 October 2023.
After the match
Mineiro edged past Coritiba 1-0 on 17 October 2026. Igor Gomes opened the scoring 78 minutes into the game for Mineiro, set up by Natanael, to make it 1-0. Bruno Melo (90') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Mineiro 169 points stronger than Coritiba. 69.4% is Mineiro's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Mineiro are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Brasileirão Série A and the 2026 Copa Sudamericana. The substitution total for Mineiro was five. Coritiba picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Coritiba was five. Mineiro kept their opponents scoreless.