Prior record: 11-0-4 across 15 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in Brasileirão Série A. Against that, current ratings read 1483 and 1430, a 53-point margin, and the model splits the tie 54.4% / 23.9% / 21.7%.
On expected goals the model has it 1.43 against 1.12. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 66.4% to 33.6%. Rounded, that is 1-1. The model gives 76.1% to someone winning. The home side is rated higher. A 30.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Versus the 1500 seed: -17 and -70. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.5%. São Paulo carries the largest share, 54.4%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.84/0.92 and 0.91/1.15. The edge is split: Vitória scores at the higher rate (0.91 to 0.84), São Paulo concedes at the lower (0.92 to 1.15). The distribution runs from 54.4% down to 21.7%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The match finished 2-1. 53 points of rating separation. The ratings draw on 29 and 28 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 58.1% / 23.0% / 18.9%. It landed.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
São Paulo came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding seven. A 2-0 defeat away to Cruzeiro (8 October) was their most recent result.
The 8 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired São Paulo with Cruzeiro. São Paulo lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Santos (Brasileirão Série A), São Paulo finished 1-2 on 2 October. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 20 September: São Paulo won 1-0 against Internacional at home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Boca Juniors in Copa Sudamericana, São Paulo scored one and conceded one on 16 September; the at home result was 1-1. São Paulo's away from home game on 12 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 0-2 against Palmeiras, with zero goals for and two against.
São Paulo stood 11th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 36 points from 29 matches.
Vitória's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 7 conceded. Latest: a 4-0 win at home to Chapecoense on 7 October.
Playing at home against Chapecoense (Brasileirão Série A), Vitória finished 4-0 on 7 October. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 20 September: Vitória lost 1-3 against Cruzeiro at home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Mirassol in Brasileirão Série A, Vitória scored two and conceded two on 13 September; the away from home result was 2-2. Vitória's at home game on 7 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-0 against Grêmio, with one goal for and zero against. On 29 August, Mineiro faced Vitória in Brasileirão Série A: Vitória lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Vitória 12th after 29 matches and 36 points.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 home win for Vitória on 11 April and a 2-1 home win for São Paulo on 25 August 2024.
After the match
São Paulo edged past Vitória 2-1 on 11 October 2026. Jonathan Calleri opened the scoring in the 20th minute for São Paulo, set up by Iago Borduchi, to make it 1-0. Leandro Martínez levelled it in the 39th minute for Vitória, set up by Erick, to make it 1-1. São Paulo regained the lead through Jonathan Calleri 70 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. 8 players were booked, among them Matheuzinho (16'), Cacá (17'), Gustavo Santana (24'), Djhordney (44'), José Sabino (77') and Iago Borduchi (78'). On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: São Paulo are 53 points stronger than Vitória. The card tally for São Paulo was five yellow cards. five changes were recorded for São Paulo. Marcos Antônio was booked following entry for São Paulo in the 60th minute. The card tally for Vitória was three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Vitória. Renato Kayzer, on in the 79th minute, was booked.