On file: 19 previous meetings dating to 2011, 23-29 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in Brasileirão Série A. Against that, current ratings read 1456 and 1461, a 5-point margin, and the model splits the tie 45.6% / 25.9% / 28.5%.
Coritiba holds a 17.1-point edge on the next outcome. Higher rating: the away side. 74.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Neither side holds both halves — Coritiba scores at 0.94, Botafogo concedes at 1.18. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -44 and -39. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.1%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The four component numbers read 0.94, 1.35, 0.90, 1.18. The higher rating expects 41.5% of the points, the lower 58.5%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 50.0% / 24.9% / 25.1%. That one did not come off. 45.6% goes to Coritiba, the model's lean. The three results cover 19.7 points. As a single number the model says 1-1. The match finished 1-1. The ratings draw on 30 and 32 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The two ratings differ by 5 points.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Coritiba came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding 16. A 4-0 defeat away to Fluminense (9 October) was their most recent result.
9 October: Coritiba lost 0-4 against Fluminense away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring zero goals and allowing four. Against Vasco da Gama in Brasileirão Série A, Coritiba scored zero and conceded five on 19 September; the away from home result was 0-5. Coritiba's at home game on 12 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 3-3 against Paranaense, with three goals for and three against. On 6 September, Mirassol faced Coritiba in Brasileirão Série A: Coritiba lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. Brasileirão Série A, 31 August brought an away meeting with Clube do Remo; Coritiba won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded.
Coritiba stood 10th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 38 points from 29 matches.
five goals for and seven against accompanied Botafogo's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. On 7 October, Botafogo recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting Vasco da Gama.
Brasileirão Série A, 7 October brought a home meeting with Vasco da Gama; Botafogo lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Botafogo visited Mirassol on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Grêmio travelled to face Botafogo (Brasileirão Série A) on 16 September. For Botafogo, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 1-1 was Botafogo's result against Bragantino on 12 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Botafogo drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 6 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Botafogo with Palmeiras. Botafogo drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero.
Botafogo: 13th, 35 points, 29 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-2 draw at Botafogo on 12 April and a 1-1 draw at Coritiba on 30 November 2023.
After the match
Coritiba and Botafogo drew 1-1 on 12 October 2026. Marçal (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Coritiba, set up by Josué, to make it 1-0. Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira levelled it in the 34th minute for Botafogo, set up by Cristian Medina, to make it 1-1. 7 players were booked, among them Allan (45'), Fabricio Bustos (45'), Sebastián Gómez (45'), Thiago Santos (52'), Marçal (66') and Tiago (66'). Coritiba picked up five yellow cards. The substitution total for Coritiba was five. Rodrigo Gelado, on in the 64th minute, was booked. Botafogo picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Botafogo was five.