The head-to-head counts 15 recorded meetings since 2014: 2 to Chapecoense, 4 to Paranaense, 9 drawn, 14-19 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-2 in Brasileirão Série A. Today those sides rate 1345 and 1593, 248 apart, which resolves to 15.1% / 21.6% / 63.3%.
Attack/defence pairs: 0.77/1.56 and 1.30/0.93. The model's preferred outcome is Paranaense at 63.3%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 29 and 30 rated matches respectively. Logged in advance of kickoff — 22.9% / 24.2% / 52.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Higher rating: the away side. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. Paranaense holds both halves of the profile — 1.30 against 0.77 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.56 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 78.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The underlying goal expectation is 1.06 for Chapecoense, 2.74 for Paranaense. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 248 points. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Paranaense's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 74.1%. Paranaense leads the distribution by 41.7 points over the draw. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 8.9%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Chapecoense: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; five goals scored, 11 conceded. Vitória were their latest opponents, away on 7 October: a 4-0 defeat.
0-4 was Chapecoense's result against Vitória on 7 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Chapecoense lost, with zero scored to four conceded. The 19 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Chapecoense with Mineiro. Chapecoense drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Internacional (Brasileirão Série A), Chapecoense finished 1-2 on 12 September. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 6 September: Chapecoense won 2-1 against Corinthians away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Grêmio in Brasileirão Série A, Chapecoense scored one and conceded three on 30 August; the away from home result was 1-3.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Chapecoense 20th after 28 matches and 18 points.
11 goals for and 12 against accompanied Paranaense's one win, three draws and one defeat across five outings. On 8 October, Paranaense recorded a 2-2 draw hosting Mineiro.
The 8 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Paranaense with Mineiro. Paranaense drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Bahia (Brasileirão Série A), Paranaense finished 2-1 on 20 September. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 12 September: Paranaense drew 3-3 against Coritiba away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring three goals and allowing three. Against Cruzeiro in Brasileirão Série A, Paranaense scored one and conceded three on 6 September; the away from home result was 1-3. Paranaense's at home game on 30 August (Brasileirão Série A) ended 3-3 against Fluminense, with three goals for and three against.
Paranaense stood 4th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 50 points from 29 matches.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-0 home win for Paranaense on 12 April and a 1-1 draw at Chapecoense on 13 October 2021.
After the match
Paranaense comfortably beat Chapecoense 4-1 on 12 October 2026. Leozinho opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Paranaense, set up by Gilberto, to make it 1-0. Luiz Gustavo added to the tally in the 29th minute for Paranaense to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Paranaense extended the lead through Kevin Viveros in the 31st minute, set up by Gilberto, to make it 3-0. Maurício Garcez got one back 72 minutes into the game for Chapecoense, set up by Yannick Bolasie, to make it 1-3. Kevin Viveros scored the 5th goal for Paranaense 78 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Dudu, to make it 4-1. Marcinho (40'), Joao Paulo (45') and Gilberto (70') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Paranaense 248 points stronger than Chapecoense. Paranaense: 63.3% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Paranaense are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Brasileirão Série A. two yellow cards went to Chapecoense. The substitution total for Chapecoense was five. Yannick Bolasie, on in the 46th minute, provided an assist. one yellow card went to Paranaense. Paranaense: five substitutions. Dudu entered for Paranaense at 46 minutes and later provided an assist.