31 meetings sit in the record, first in 2010, aggregate 44-47. The latest was 2026, 4-2 in Copa Sudamericana. Against that, current ratings read 1560 and 1541, a 19-point margin, and the model splits the tie 49.4% / 25.0% / 25.5%.
With 29 and 28 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The gap between first and second outcome is 23.9 points, Mineiro ahead of Santos. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Neither side holds both halves — Santos scores at 1.17, Mineiro concedes at 0.84. The xG line reads 1.64 to 1.33. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +60 and +41. Top of the distribution: Mineiro, 49.4%. Between best and worst outcome there is 24.4 points of daylight. Distance between the ratings: 19 points, narrow on this scale. Its point estimate is 1-1. Raw profiles are 1.07 and 0.84 against 1.17 and 1.04. Higher rating: the home side. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.2%. The forecast we stored before the match was 46.6% / 25.7% / 27.7%. The result went the way that forecast pointed.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Mineiro: three wins and two draws over five games; 11 goals scored, six conceded, unbeaten. Paranaense were their latest opponents, away on 8 October: a 2-2 draw.
Mineiro visited Paranaense on 8 October (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 2-2; their goals totalled two, compared with two conceded. Bragantino travelled to face Mineiro (Brasileirão Série A) on 3 October. For Mineiro, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Mineiro's result against Chapecoense on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Mineiro drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 16 September fixture (Copa Sudamericana) paired Mineiro with Santos. Mineiro won 4-2 at home, netting four goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Fluminense (Brasileirão Série A), Mineiro finished 3-1 on 12 September. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition.
44 points in 29 matches put Mineiro 7th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
ten goals for and nine against accompanied Santos's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 8 October, Santos recorded a 2-2 draw hosting Flamengo.
Flamengo travelled to face Santos (Brasileirão Série A) on 8 October. For Santos, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 2-1 was Santos's result against São Paulo on 2 October (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Santos won, with two scored to one conceded. The 19 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Santos with Clube do Remo. Santos won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Mineiro (Copa Sudamericana), Santos finished 2-4 on 16 September. Their score comprised two goals, against four from the opposition. 13 September: Santos won 2-1 against Cruzeiro at home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring two goals and allowing one.
Santos: 8th, 42 points, 29 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 4-2 home win for Mineiro on 16 September and a 2-0 home win for Santos on 9 September.
After the match
Mineiro edged past Santos 2-1 on 11 October 2026. Gabriel Barbosa opened the scoring late on, in the 88th minute for Santos, set up by Philippe Coutinho, to make it 1-0. Vitor Hugo levelled it in the 91st minute for Mineiro, set up by Maycon, to make it 1-1. Thiago Borbas put Mineiro in front in the 97th minute, set up by Alan Minda, to make it 2-1. 8 players were booked, among them Alan Franco (45'), Lucas Veríssimo (45'), Thiago Borbas (66'), Luan Peres (66'), Igor Gomes (70') and João Schmidt (85'). Every goal came after the interval. Mineiro are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Brasileirão Série A and the 2026 Copa Sudamericana. three yellow cards went to Mineiro. The substitution total for Mineiro was five. After coming on for Mineiro in minute 46, Alan Minda provided an assist. Maycon provided an assist following entry for Mineiro in the 69th minute. Santos: five yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Santos. Luan Peres was booked following entry for Santos in the 9th minute. João Schmidt, on in the 72nd minute, was booked. Philippe Coutinho entered for Santos at 72 minutes and later provided an assist. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. Mineiro won after falling behind.