On file: 9 previous meetings dating to 2014, 11-8 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-1 in Brasileirão Série A. Against that, current ratings read 1430 and 1369, a 61-point margin, and the model splits the tie 55.6% / 23.6% / 20.8%.
Rounded, that is 1-1. The three results cover 34.8 points. Result on the day: 4-0. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Expected goals 1.86-1.28. Raw profiles are 0.91 and 1.15 against 0.83 and 1.38. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.3%. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The forecast we stored before the match was 51.8% / 24.5% / 23.7%. That call matched the result. Elo expected shares: 67.4% and 32.6%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. A 32.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Vitória is ahead on each half — 0.91 to 0.83 in attack, 1.15 to 1.38 in defence. Most likely single result is Vitória on 55.6%. The model gives 76.4% to someone winning. A 61-point spread sits between the two figures. Neither figure is thin: 28 and 25 matches respectively sit behind them.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Vitória: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; five goals scored, nine conceded. Cruzeiro were their latest opponents, at home on 20 September: a 3-1 defeat.
1-3 was Vitória's result against Cruzeiro on 20 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Vitória lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 13 September fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Vitória with Mirassol. Vitória drew 2-2 away from home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Grêmio (Brasileirão Série A), Vitória finished 1-0 on 7 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 29 August: Vitória lost 1-2 against Mineiro away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Bahia in Brasileirão Série A, Vitória scored zero and conceded two on 23 August; the at home result was 0-2.
33 points in 28 matches put Vitória 14th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
six goals for and seven against accompanied Chapecoense's two wins, one draw and two defeats across five outings. On 19 September, Chapecoense recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Mineiro.
Brasileirão Série A, 19 September brought an away meeting with Mineiro; Chapecoense drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Chapecoense hosted Internacional on 12 September (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Corinthians hosted Chapecoense (Brasileirão Série A) on 6 September. For Chapecoense, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 1-3 was Chapecoense's result against Grêmio on 30 August (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Chapecoense lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 23 August fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Chapecoense with São Paulo. Chapecoense won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero.
Chapecoense: 20th, 18 points, 27 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Previous meetings in our records: a 1-1 draw at Chapecoense on 5 April and a 1-0 away win for Vitória on 14 October 2018.
After the match
Vitória overwhelmed Chapecoense 4-0 on 7 October 2026. Erick opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Vitória, set up by Matheuzinho, to make it 1-0. Matheuzinho added to the tally 53 minutes into the game for Vitória, set up by Matheusinho, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Vitória extended the lead through Erick 61 minutes into the game, set up by Matheuzinho, to make it 3-0. Matheuzinho scored the 4th goal for Vitória 74 minutes into the game as they extended the lead, set up by Matheusinho, to make it 4-0. Kauan Gomes (22'), Luan Cândido (44'), Camilo (45'), Diego Tarzia (62') and Fernando (90') were booked. Vitória's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 55.6% for a win in this pairing. On current ratings the model puts Vitória at around 1.86 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Vitória: two yellow cards. Vitória made five changes. Chapecoense: three yellow cards. Chapecoense made five changes. Fernando entered for Chapecoense at 46 minutes and later was booked. Vitória finished with a clean sheet.