28 meetings sit in the record, first in 2010, aggregate 31-40. The latest was 2026, 1-3 in Brasileirão Série A. The present numbers are 1551 against 1639, and the model turns that into 33.2% / 27.2% / 39.6%.
3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.4%. By expected share of the points: 46.7% and 53.3%. xG: 1.27 to 1.84. The leading outcome clears the second by 6.4 points. There is no trade-off to weigh: Flamengo scores at the higher rate (1.35 to 1.19) and concedes at the lower (0.72 to 1.01). Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +51 and +139. The away side is rated higher. Most and least likely outcomes are 12.4 points apart. Before kickoff our model had this at 31.2% / 26.7% / 42.1%. The result went the other way. The model's preferred outcome is Flamengo at 39.6%. As a single number the model says 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 72.8%; the draw takes the rest. Neither figure is thin: 27 and 28 matches respectively sit behind them. The match finished 2-2. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Santos's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 7 conceded. Latest: a 2-1 win away to São Paulo on 2 October.
Playing away from home against São Paulo (Brasileirão Série A), Santos finished 2-1 on 2 October. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 19 September: Santos won 2-1 against Clube do Remo away from home in Brasileirão Série A, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Mineiro in Copa Sudamericana, Santos scored two and conceded four on 16 September; the away from home result was 2-4. Santos's at home game on 13 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 2-1 against Cruzeiro, with two goals for and one against. On 9 September, Mineiro faced Santos in Copa Sudamericana: Santos won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero.
41 points in 28 matches put Santos 8th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
Flamengo: four wins and one draw over five games; eight goals scored, three conceded, unbeaten. Bragantino were their latest opponents, at home on 20 September: a 2-1 win.
On 20 September, Bragantino faced Flamengo in Brasileirão Série A: Flamengo won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one. Copa Libertadores, 18 September brought a home meeting with Independiente del Valle; Flamengo drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Flamengo hosted Corinthians on 13 September (Brasileirão Série A) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Independiente del Valle hosted Flamengo (Copa Libertadores) on 11 September. For Flamengo, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 1-0 was Flamengo's result against Clube do Remo on 6 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing away from home; Flamengo won, with one scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Brasileirão Série A's results-based standings placed Flamengo 1st after 28 matches and 60 points.
The last two recorded meetings were a 3-1 home win for Flamengo on 5 April and a 2-1 away win for Santos on 1 November 2023.
After the match
Santos and Flamengo drew 2-2 on 8 October 2026. Danilo Luiz da Silva opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Flamengo, set up by Pedro, to make it 1-0. Lucas Paquetá added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Flamengo, set up by Jorge Carrascal, to make it 2-0. Neymar pulled one back from the penalty spot late on, in the 82nd minute for Santos to make it 1-2. Neymar levelled it from the penalty spot late on, in the 88th minute for Santos to make it 2-2. Jorginho (79') was sent off. 10 players were booked, among them Gonzalo Escobar (12'), Gustavo Henrique (35'), Álvaro Barreal (36'), Pedro (42'), Neymar (53') and Lucas Paquetá (55'). 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Flamengo are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Copa Libertadores and the 2026 Brasileirão Série A. six yellow cards went to Santos. Santos: four substitutions. Neymar, on in the 46th minute, scored two times in minutes 82, 88 and was booked. The card tally for Flamengo was four yellow cards and one red card. Flamengo made four changes. After coming on for Flamengo in minute 81, Bruno Henrique was booked.