Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 26.3% against 43.7% and 30.0%.
The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Expected goals 1.23-1.14. They have met once on record — 2026, 0-0 in Brasileirão Série A, which is too little history to weigh. Neither figure is thin: 29 and 28 matches respectively sit behind them. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The tie closed out 1-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.1%. Rounded, that is 1-1. Grêmio's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.1%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -78 and -61. The rating gap itself is 17 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. Win-or-lose totals 73.7%; the draw takes the rest. Most likely single result is Clube do Remo on 43.7%. Outcomes span 17.4 points. Clube do Remo leads the distribution by 13.7 points over Grêmio. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 43.5% / 26.4% / 30.2%. That one did not come off. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Honours split: 0.84 forward for Clube do Remo, 0.99 back for Grêmio.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and ten against accompanied Clube do Remo's five defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 19 September, Clube do Remo recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting Santos.
Clube do Remo's at home game on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 1-2 against Santos, with one goal for and two against. On 14 September, Bahia faced Clube do Remo in Brasileirão Série A: Clube do Remo lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Brasileirão Série A, 6 September brought a home meeting with Flamengo; Clube do Remo lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Clube do Remo hosted Coritiba on 31 August (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 2-3; their goals totalled two, compared with three conceded. Fluminense hosted Clube do Remo (Brasileirão Série A) on 22 August. For Clube do Remo, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
Clube do Remo: 19th, 23 points, 28 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
six goals for and seven against accompanied Grêmio's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. On 20 September, Grêmio recorded a 0-0 draw hosting Palmeiras.
Grêmio's at home game on 20 September (Brasileirão Série A) ended 0-0 against Palmeiras, with zero goals for and zero against. On 16 September, Botafogo faced Grêmio in Brasileirão Série A: Grêmio lost 2-3 away from home, having scored two and conceded three. Brasileirão Série A, 12 September brought a home meeting with Vasco da Gama; Grêmio lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Grêmio visited Vitória on 7 September (Brasileirão Série A) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Chapecoense travelled to face Grêmio (Brasileirão Série A) on 30 August. For Grêmio, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed.
Grêmio: 17th, 29 points, 28 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
Earlier results between these sides included a 0-0 draw at Grêmio on 5 April.
After the match
Clube do Remo and Grêmio drew 1-1 on 7 October 2026. Walter Kannemann opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for Grêmio, set up by Wallace, to make it 1-0. David Braga levelled it late on, in the 88th minute for Clube do Remo, set up by Gabriel Taliari, to make it 1-1. 7 players were booked, among them Vitor Bueno (10'), Cristian Pavón (20'), Dodi (27'), Gabriel Taliari (35'), Antonio Galeano (45') and José Enamorado (57'). three yellow cards went to Clube do Remo. The substitution total for Clube do Remo was four. After coming on for Clube do Remo in minute 81, David Braga scored in minute 88. Grêmio: four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Grêmio. After coming on for Grêmio in minute 46, José Enamorado was booked.