On record: 24 meetings from 2010, 21-35 on aggregate, 4 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-4 in Brasileirão Série A. Today those sides rate 1558 and 1483, 75 apart, which resolves to 57.7% / 23.1% / 19.3%.
Point estimate: 1-1. The underlying goal expectation is 1.61 for Cruzeiro, 1.06 for São Paulo. A 75-point difference on the rating scale. Played and finished 2-0. Elo expected shares: 69.1% and 30.9%. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.8%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Cruzeiro the scoring rate at 1.19, São Paulo the conceding rate at 0.92. With 28 and 29 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The model's preferred outcome is Cruzeiro at 57.7%. The model gives 77.0% to someone winning. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +58 and -17. The four component numbers read 1.19, 0.93, 0.84, 0.92. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Cruzeiro sits 34.6 points above the next most likely result. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 53.3% / 24.1% / 22.6%. It landed.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Cruzeiro: three wins and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, eight conceded. Vitória were their latest opponents, away on 20 September: a 3-1 win.
Cruzeiro visited Vitória on 20 September (Brasileirão Série A) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. Santos hosted Cruzeiro (Brasileirão Série A) on 13 September. For Cruzeiro, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 3-1 was Cruzeiro's result against Paranaense on 6 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Cruzeiro won, with three scored to one conceded. The 30 August fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Cruzeiro with Vasco da Gama. Cruzeiro lost 1-3 away from home, netting one goal while conceding three. Playing at home against Flamengo (Brasileirão Série A), Cruzeiro finished 2-1 on 22 August. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
45 points in 28 matches put Cruzeiro 6th in the pre-match results-based Brasileirão Série A standings.
São Paulo came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding six. A 2-1 defeat at home to Santos (2 October) was their most recent result.
The 2 October fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired São Paulo with Santos. São Paulo lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against Internacional (Brasileirão Série A), São Paulo finished 1-0 on 20 September. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 16 September: São Paulo drew 1-1 against Boca Juniors at home in Copa Sudamericana, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Palmeiras in Brasileirão Série A, São Paulo scored zero and conceded two on 12 September; the away from home result was 0-2. São Paulo's away from home game on 9 September (Copa Sudamericana) ended 0-1 against Boca Juniors, with zero goals for and one against.
São Paulo stood 11th in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 36 points from 28 matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 4-1 home win for São Paulo on 4 April and a 1-0 away win for São Paulo on 15 September 2024.
After the match
Cruzeiro beat São Paulo 2-0 on 8 October 2026. Kaio Jorge opened the scoring in the 44th minute for Cruzeiro, set up by Matheus Pereira, to make it 1-0. Zé Lucas added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Cruzeiro to make it 2-0. Wendell (21'), Gabriel Rojas (24') and Matheus Pereira (72') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Cruzeiro are 75 points stronger than São Paulo. 57.7% is Cruzeiro's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. two yellow cards went to Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro: five substitutions. After coming on for Cruzeiro in minute 46, zé Lucas scored in minute 57. The card tally for São Paulo was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for São Paulo. Cruzeiro conceded no goals.