Across 31 recorded meetings back to 2010 the split is 13-2-16 from Paranaense's side on wins, 28-37 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in Brasileirão Série A. Currently 1556 against 1550 — a 47.3% / 25.5% / 27.2% split.
Paranaense carries the largest share, 47.3%. Neither side holds both halves — Paranaense scores at 1.17, Mineiro concedes at 0.85. The match finished 2-2. The two ratings differ by 6 points. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Point estimate: 1-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 20.1 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +56 and +50. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 27 and 28 rated matches respectively. On expected goals the model has it 1.48 against 1.43. Most and least likely outcomes are 21.8 points apart. The four component numbers read 1.17, 1.02, 1.04, 0.85. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Someone wins 74.5% of the time by this model. The higher rating expects 60.1% of the points, the lower 39.9%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 49.6% / 25.0% / 25.4%. That one did not come off.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and 12 against accompanied Paranaense's two wins, two draws and one defeat across five outings. On 20 September, Paranaense recorded a 2-1 win hosting Bahia.
Brasileirão Série A, 20 September brought a home meeting with Bahia; Paranaense won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Paranaense visited Coritiba on 12 September (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 3-3; their goals totalled three, compared with three conceded. Cruzeiro hosted Paranaense (Brasileirão Série A) on 6 September. For Paranaense, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed. 3-3 was Paranaense's result against Fluminense on 30 August (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Paranaense drew, with three scored to three conceded. The 24 August fixture (Brasileirão Série A) paired Paranaense with Botafogo. Paranaense won 3-2 away from home, netting three goals while conceding two.
Paranaense stood 3rd in the results-based Brasileirão Série A table before kickoff, with 49 points from 28 matches.
Mineiro came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding six. A 1-0 win at home to Bragantino (3 October) was their most recent result.
Brasileirão Série A, 3 October brought a home meeting with Bragantino; Mineiro won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Mineiro hosted Chapecoense on 19 September (Brasileirão Série A) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Santos travelled to face Mineiro (Copa Sudamericana) on 16 September. For Mineiro, the score was 4-2: four goals scored, two allowed. 3-1 was Mineiro's result against Fluminense on 12 September (Brasileirão Série A), playing at home; Mineiro won, with three scored to one conceded. The 9 September fixture (Copa Sudamericana) paired Mineiro with Santos. Mineiro lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two.
Mineiro: 7th, 43 points, 28 matches in the calculated Brasileirão Série A standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 2-1 home win for Mineiro on 5 April and a 1-0 home win for Mineiro on 8 December 2024.
After the match
Paranaense and Mineiro drew 2-2 on 8 October 2026. Kerwin Vargas opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Paranaense, set up by Gilberto, to make it 1-0. Bernard levelled it in the 27th minute for Mineiro to make it 1-1. Paranaense regained the lead through Kevin Viveros in the 93rd minute to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Mineiro drew level through Lyanco in the 97th minute, set up by Thiago Borbas, to make it 2-2. Tomás Pérez (73') was sent off. Tomás Cuello (67') and Kevin Castaño (74') were booked. 2 gols came after the 80th minute. Mineiro are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 Copa Sudamericana and the 2026 Brasileirão Série A. Paranaense: five substitutions. The card tally for Mineiro was two yellow cards and one red card. five changes were recorded for Mineiro. Kevin Castaño entered for Mineiro at 68 minutes and later was booked. After coming on for Mineiro in minute 68, Tomás Pérez was sent off. Thiago Borbas provided an assist following entry for Mineiro in the 76th minute.