Rated 1587 and 1438, these two produce a 58.8% / 22.8% / 18.4% split. Colombia holds both halves of the profile — 0.89 against 0.85 for scoring, 0.72 against 1.06 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Most weight falls on 1-0 at 15.6%. Someone wins 77.2% of the time by this model. 58.8% goes to Colombia, the model's lean. Ghana's number leans on a 6-match sample. The two ratings differ by 149 points. By expected share of the points: 70.2% and 29.8%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +87 and -62. The four component numbers read 0.89, 0.72, 0.85, 1.06. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Spread across the three results is 40.4 points. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. xG: 1.28 to 0.82. The match finished 1-0. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Its rounded call is 1-0. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Colombia holds a 36.0-point edge on the next outcome.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and two against accompanied Colombia's four wins and one draw across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 0-0 draw at home to Portugal (27 June) was their most recent result.
The 27 June fixture (World Cup) paired Colombia with Portugal. Colombia drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Congo DR (World Cup), Colombia finished 1-0 on 24 June. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 18 June: Colombia won 3-1 against Uzbekistan away from home in World Cup, scoring three goals and allowing one. Against Jordan in International Friendlies, Colombia scored two and conceded zero on 7 June; the at home result was 2-0. Colombia's at home game on 1 June (International Friendlies) ended 3-1 against Costa Rica, with three goals for and one against.
Ghana: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; three goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat away to Croatia on 27 June.
On 27 June, Croatia faced Ghana in World Cup: Ghana lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. World Cup, 23 June brought an away meeting with England; Ghana drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Ghana hosted Panama on 17 June (World Cup) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Wales hosted Ghana (International Friendlies) on 2 June. For Ghana, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-2 was Ghana's result against Mexico on 23 May (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Ghana lost, with zero scored to two conceded.
After the match
Colombia edged past Ghana 1-0 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City on 4 July 2026. Jhon Arias opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Colombia, set up by Luis Suárez, to make it 1-0. Jhon Arias (12'), Caleb Yirenkyi (49'), Abdul Issahaku (66'), Alidu Seidu (76') and Richard Rios (78') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Colombia 149 points stronger than Ghana. 58.8% is Colombia's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Ghana's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualification. Expected goals put the gap at 2.18 to 0.26. The card tally for Colombia was two yellow cards. Colombia made four changes. Luis Suárez provided an assist following entry for Colombia in the 8th minute. Richard Rios, on in the 46th minute, was booked. Ghana picked up three yellow cards. Ghana: five substitutions. After coming on for Ghana in minute 13, Alidu Seidu was booked. Abdul Issahaku was booked following entry for Ghana in the 62nd minute. Colombia finished with a clean sheet.