Rated 1590 and 1475, these two produce a 54.0% / 24.0% / 22.0% split. Colombia holds both halves of the profile — 0.92 against 0.86 for scoring, 0.77 against 0.91 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Most weight falls on 1-0 at 15.0%. Someone wins 76.0% of the time by this model. 54.0% goes to Colombia, the model's lean. Ghana's number leans on a 4-match sample. The two ratings differ by 115 points. By share of the rated field: 9.6% and 64.7%. In the global table that is 428 and 2878 out of 4,449 rated teams. The four component numbers read 0.92, 0.77, 0.86, 0.91. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Spread across the three results is 32.0 points. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. xG: 1.12 to 0.89. The match finished 1-0. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Its rounded call is 1-0. They are 2,450 places apart on the global list. Colombia holds a 30.0-point edge on the next outcome.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.