The ratings are far apart — 1644 against 1478, 166 points — and the model turns that into 61.1% / 22.2% / 16.7%.
Switzerland carries the largest share, 61.1%. The two ratings differ by 166 points. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Its point estimate is 1-1. The three results cover 44.4 points. Both components point the same way, toward Switzerland: 1.29 to 1.11 going forward, 0.71 to 1.12 going back. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +144 and -22. In absolute terms: Switzerland 1.29/0.71, Algeria 1.11/1.12 on attack and defence. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.2%. Result on the day: 2-0. On expected goals the model has it 1.95 against 1.06. The higher-rated side expects 72.2% of the points; the other side 27.8%. First to second is a 38.9-point step, Switzerland over the draw. Neither figure is thin: 15 and 7 matches respectively sit behind them. Win-or-lose totals 77.8%; the draw takes the rest. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Switzerland were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring 12 goals and conceding five. On 24 June, Switzerland recorded a 2-1 win hosting Canada; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Bosnia-H. on 18 June.
24 June: Switzerland won 2-1 against Canada at home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Bosnia-H. in World Cup, Switzerland scored four and conceded one on 18 June; the at home result was 4-1. Switzerland's away from home game on 13 June (World Cup) ended 1-1 against Qatar, with one goal for and one against. On 6 June, Australia faced Switzerland in International Friendlies: Switzerland drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 31 May brought a home meeting with Jordan; Switzerland won 4-1, a return of four goals scored and one conceded.
Algeria's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 7 conceded. Austria were their latest opponents, at home on 28 June: a 3-3 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Bolivia on 11 June.
Algeria hosted Austria on 28 June (World Cup) and drew 3-3; their goals totalled three, compared with three conceded. Jordan hosted Algeria (World Cup) on 23 June. For Algeria, the score was 2-1: two goals scored, one allowed. 0-3 was Algeria's result against Argentina on 17 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Algeria lost, with zero scored to three conceded. The 11 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Algeria with Bolivia. Algeria won 4-0 away from home, netting four goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Netherlands (International Friendlies), Algeria finished 1-0 on 3 June. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition.
After the match
Switzerland beat Algeria 2-0 at BC Place, Vancouver on 3 July 2026. Breel Embolo opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Switzerland, set up by Johan Manzambi, to make it 1-0. Dan Ndoye added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for Switzerland to make it 2-0. Fares Chaïbi (36') and Hicham Boudaoui (72') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Switzerland 166 points stronger than Algeria. Switzerland's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 61.1% for a win in this pairing. Switzerland's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.56 to 0.73. Switzerland: five substitutions. two yellow cards went to Algeria. The substitution total for Algeria was five. After coming on for Algeria in minute 71, Hicham Boudaoui was booked. Switzerland conceded no goals.