On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 36.0% / 28.0% / 36.0%, nothing above 36.0%.
Australia's side of that rests on 4 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Raw profiles are 0.90 and 0.90 against 1.05 and 1.02. A 8.0-point range covers every outcome here. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Win-or-lose totals 72.0%; the draw takes the rest. The two halves pull apart — Egypt better going forward at 1.05, Australia tighter at the back on 0.90. There is no rating gap at all between them. 6 places separate them in the global order. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. The xG line reads 1.24 to 1.28. Result on the day: 1-1. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Top of the distribution: Australia, 36.0%. Neither has a percentile edge — around the top 28.5% each. Point estimate: 1-1. The top two outcomes are within 0.0 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. In the global table that is 1268 and 1262 out of 4,449 rated teams.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.