On these ratings there is no favourite to name — 33.3% / 27.2% / 39.5%, nothing above 39.5%.
Australia's side of that rests on 6 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Raw profiles are 0.93 and 1.02 against 1.08 and 0.89. The three results cover 12.3 points. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Win-or-lose totals 72.8%; the draw takes the rest. Egypt is ahead on each half — 1.08 to 0.93 in attack, 0.89 to 1.02 in defence. The two ratings differ by 22 points. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. The xG line reads 1.11 to 1.48. Result on the day: 1-1. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Top of the distribution: Egypt, 39.5%. By expected share of the points: 46.8% and 53.2%. Point estimate: 1-1. A 6.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -5 and +17. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.3%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Australia: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; three goals scored, four conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 0-0 draw away to Paraguay on 26 June.
Against Paraguay in World Cup, Australia scored zero and conceded zero on 26 June; the away from home result was 0-0. Australia's away from home game on 19 June (World Cup) ended 0-2 against USA, with zero goals for and two against. On 14 June, Turkey faced Australia in World Cup: Australia won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 6 June brought an away meeting with Switzerland; Australia drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Australia visited Mexico on 31 May (International Friendlies) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded.
Egypt: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Iran on 27 June.
On 27 June, Iran faced Egypt in World Cup: Egypt drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. World Cup, 22 June brought an away meeting with New Zealand; Egypt won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Egypt visited Belgium on 15 June (World Cup) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Brazil hosted Egypt (International Friendlies) on 6 June. For Egypt, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 1-0 was Egypt's result against Russia on 28 May (International Friendlies), playing at home; Egypt won, with one scored to zero conceded.
After the match
Australia and Egypt drew 1-1 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 3 July 2026. The tie went to penalties, where Egypt won the shootout 4-2. Emam Ashour opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Egypt, set up by Karim Hafez, to make it 1-0. Mohamed Hany (an own goal) levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Australia to make it 1-1. Haissem Hassan (105') and Yasser Ibrahim (120') were booked. Australia: six substitutions. Egypt: two yellow cards. Egypt made five changes. Haissem Hassan was booked following entry for Egypt in the 67th minute.