Argentina enters 284 points clear of Cape Verde on rating, which the model reads as 74.6% / 18.1% / 7.3%.
A 6-match base for Cape Verde. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Most and least likely outcomes are 67.3 points apart. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Played and finished 3-2. 81.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Goal expectation splits 2.41 to 0.90. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +240 and -44. Both components point the same way, toward Argentina: 1.64 to 0.92 going forward, 0.72 to 1.09 going back. Flat distribution — 2-0 tops it at just 10.6%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-0. Argentina holds a 56.5-point edge on the next outcome. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 284 points. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Attack/defence pairs: 1.64/0.72 and 0.92/1.09. By expected share of the points: 83.7% and 16.3%. Most likely single result is Argentina on 74.6%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
13 goals for and one against accompanied Argentina's five wins across five outings, keeping four clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 3-1 win away to Jordan (28 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Algeria on 17 June.
The 28 June fixture (World Cup) paired Argentina with Jordan. Argentina won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Austria (World Cup), Argentina finished 2-0 on 22 June. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 17 June: Argentina won 3-0 against Algeria at home in World Cup, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Iceland in International Friendlies, Argentina scored three and conceded zero on 10 June; the at home result was 3-0. Argentina's at home game on 7 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-0 against Honduras, with two goals for and zero against.
Cape Verde were unbeaten in their last five games, with two wins and three draws, scoring eight goals and conceding two, keeping four clean sheets. A 0-0 draw at home to Saudi Arabia (27 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Bermuda on 6 June.
Saudi Arabia travelled to face Cape Verde (World Cup) on 27 June. For Cape Verde, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 2-2 was Cape Verde's result against Uruguay on 21 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Cape Verde drew, with two scored to two conceded. The 15 June fixture (World Cup) paired Cape Verde with Spain. Cape Verde drew 0-0 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Bermuda (International Friendlies), Cape Verde finished 3-0 on 6 June. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 31 May: Cape Verde won 3-0 against Serbia at home in International Friendlies, scoring three goals and allowing zero.
After the match
Argentina edged past Cape Verde 3-2 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami on 3 July 2026. Lionel Messi opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Argentina to make it 1-0. Deroy Duarte levelled it 59 minutes into the game for Cape Verde to make it 1-1. Argentina regained the lead through Lisandro Martínez in the 92nd minute to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Cape Verde drew level through Sidny Lopes Cabral in the 103rd minute to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Argentina restored the lead through Diney Borges (an own goal) in the 111th minute to make it 3-2. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Argentina 284 points stronger than Cape Verde. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. 74.6% is Argentina's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Expected goals put the gap at 2.16 to 0.45. The substitution total for Argentina was five. The substitution total for Cape Verde was six.