Argentina enters 242 points clear of Cape Verde on rating, which the model reads as 70.4% / 19.5% / 10.1%.
A 4-match base for Cape Verde. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Most and least likely outcomes are 60.3 points apart. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Played and finished 3-2. 80.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Goal expectation splits 1.70 to 1.11. They are 2,149 places apart on the global list. In the global table that is 117 and 2266 out of 4,449 rated teams. Both components point the same way, toward Argentina: 1.27 to 0.95 going forward, 0.87 to 0.99 going back. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.3%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Argentina holds a 50.9-point edge on the next outcome. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 242 points. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Attack/defence pairs: 1.27/0.87 and 0.95/0.99. By share of the rated field: 2.6% and 50.9%. Most likely single result is Argentina on 70.4%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.