A 217-point edge to England, which the model prices at 67.5% / 20.4% / 12.1%.
Between best and worst outcome there is 55.4 points of daylight. The model gives 79.6% to someone winning. Rating separation comes to 217 points. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.8%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher-rated side expects 77.7% of the points; the other side 22.3%. England leads the distribution by 47.1 points over the draw. Expected goals 2.05-1.17. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +218 and +1. With 19 and 8 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Both components point the same way, toward England: 1.61 to 0.97 going forward, 0.90 to 0.94 going back. Most likely single result is England on 67.5%. Final score: 2-1. In absolute terms: England 1.61/0.90, Congo DR 0.97/0.94 on attack and defence. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The higher rating belongs to the home side.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
England were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring ten goals and conceding two, keeping four clean sheets. On 27 June, England recorded a 2-0 win visiting Panama; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Costa Rica on 10 June.
World Cup, 27 June brought an away meeting with Panama; England won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. England hosted Ghana on 23 June (World Cup) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Croatia travelled to face England (World Cup) on 17 June. For England, the score was 4-2: four goals scored, two allowed. 3-0 was England's result against Costa Rica on 10 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; England won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired England with New Zealand. England won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero.
Congo DR's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win at home to Uzbekistan on 27 June.
Against Uzbekistan in World Cup, Congo DR scored three and conceded one on 27 June; the at home result was 3-1. Congo DR's away from home game on 24 June (World Cup) ended 0-1 against Colombia, with zero goals for and one against. On 17 June, Portugal faced Congo DR in World Cup: Congo DR drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 9 June brought a home meeting with Chile; Congo DR lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Congo DR hosted Denmark on 3 June (International Friendlies) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded.
After the match
England edged past Congo DR 2-1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta on 1 July 2026. Brian Cipenga opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Congo DR, set up by Chancel Mbemba, to make it 1-0. Harry Kane levelled it 75 minutes into the game for England, set up by Anthony Gordon, to make it 1-1. Harry Kane put England in front late on, in the 86th minute, set up by Anthony Gordon, to make it 2-1. Jude Bellingham (19') and Noah Sadiki (27') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have England 217 points stronger than Congo DR. England won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 67.5%. Expected goals put the gap at 2.04 to 0.8. England: one yellow card. England made four changes. Anthony Gordon provided an assist following entry for England in the 60th minute. Congo DR picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Congo DR was five. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. After trailing, England secured the win.