A 213-point edge to England, which the model prices at 67.0% / 20.5% / 12.4%.
Between best and worst outcome there is 54.6 points of daylight. The model gives 79.4% to someone winning. Rating separation comes to 213 points. England leads the distribution by 46.5 points over the draw. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.6%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher-percentile side clears the top 3.4%; the other the top 46.9%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Expected goals 1.77-1.34. They occupy positions 150 and 2087 in a 4,449-team ranking. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The split is one apiece: England leads the attacking rate on 1.33, Congo DR the defensive on 0.99. Most likely single result is England on 67.0%. Final score: 2-1. In absolute terms: England 1.33/1.01, Congo DR 0.99/0.99 on attack and defence. Congo DR's number leans on a 4-match sample. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. 1,937 places separate them in the global order.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.