Prior record: 2-3-2 across 7 since 2002. Most recent 2025, 1-1 in Friendlies. The live ratings are 1542 and 1465, giving 57.8% / 23.0% / 19.2%.
A 38.6-point range top to bottom. First to second is a 34.8-point step, Mexico over the draw. Both figures rest on decent samples, 9 and 7 matches. The higher rating expects 69.4% of the points, the lower 30.6%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-0 on 12.9%. In absolute terms: Mexico 0.96/0.97, Ecuador 0.76/0.95 on attack and defence. Honours split: 0.96 forward for Mexico, 0.95 back for Ecuador. Result on the day: 2-0. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The model gives 77.0% to someone winning. Point estimate: 1-0. Ratings sit 77 apart. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The underlying goal expectation is 1.35 for Mexico, 1.00 for Ecuador. Versus the 1500 seed: +42 and -35. Mexico carries the largest share, 57.8%. The higher rating belongs to the home side.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Mexico: five wins over five games; 12 goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-0 win away to Czechia on 25 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Serbia on 5 June.
3-0 was Mexico's result against Czechia on 25 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Mexico won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 19 June fixture (World Cup) paired Mexico with Korea Republic. Mexico won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against South Africa (World Cup), Mexico finished 2-0 on 11 June. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 5 June: Mexico won 5-1 against Serbia at home in International Friendlies, scoring five goals and allowing one. Against Australia in International Friendlies, Mexico scored one and conceded zero on 31 May; the at home result was 1-0.
seven goals for and three against accompanied Ecuador's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 2-1 win at home to Germany (25 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Guatemala on 7 June.
25 June: Ecuador won 2-1 against Germany at home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Curaçao in World Cup, Ecuador scored zero and conceded zero on 21 June; the at home result was 0-0. Ecuador's away from home game on 14 June (World Cup) ended 0-1 against Ivory Coast, with zero goals for and one against. On 7 June, Guatemala faced Ecuador in International Friendlies: Ecuador won 3-0 at home, having scored three and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 31 May brought a home meeting with Saudi Arabia; Ecuador won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Previous meetings in our records: a 0-0 draw at Mexico on 1 July 2024 and a 2-1 away win for Ecuador on 19 June 2015.
After the match
Mexico beat Ecuador 2-0 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City on 1 July 2026. Julián Quiñones opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Mexico, set up by Roberto Alvarado, to make it 1-0. Raúl Jiménez added to the tally in the 31st minute for Mexico, set up by Julián Quiñones, to make it 2-0. Alan Franco (45') and Ray Paez (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Mexico are 77 points stronger than Ecuador. Mexico's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 57.8% for a win in this pairing. The substitution total for Mexico was five. two yellow cards went to Ecuador. The substitution total for Ecuador was five. After coming on for Ecuador in minute 79, Ray Paez was booked. Mexico kept their opponents scoreless.