Prior record: 2-3-2 across 7 since 2002. Most recent 2025, 1-1 in Friendlies. The live ratings are 1575 and 1481, giving 60.2% / 22.4% / 17.4%.
A 42.8-point range top to bottom. A 4-match base for Ecuador. Point estimate: 1-1. One sits in the top 11.6%, the other the top 57.4%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.9%. In absolute terms: Mexico 1.13/0.87, Ecuador 0.86/0.95 on attack and defence. There is no trade-off to weigh: Mexico scores at the higher rate (1.13 to 0.86) and concedes at the lower (0.87 to 0.95). Result on the day: 2-0. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The model gives 77.6% to someone winning. First to second is a 37.8-point step, Mexico over the draw. Ratings sit 94 apart. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The underlying goal expectation is 1.59 for Mexico, 1.01 for Ecuador. Global standing: 517 and 2553 of 4,449. Mexico carries the largest share, 60.2%. 2,036 places separate them in the global order.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.