At 26.0% the draw is close to the most likely single outcome.
Scorelines above 8%: 3. 74.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Norway has the better scoring rate (1.17) and Ivory Coast the better defensive one (0.95). The leading outcome clears the second by 16.4 points. On expected goals the model has it 1.48 against 1.49. The Ivory Coast figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. They occupy positions 1346 and 609 in a 4,449-team ranking. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 57 points. Raw profiles are 0.98 and 0.95 against 1.17 and 1.11. Most likely single result is Norway on 45.2%. The ranking gap is 737 positions. The three results cover 19.2 points. Point estimate: 1-1. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.3%. It ended 1-2. By percentile the separation is top 13.7% to top 30.3%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.