1533 against 1534 gives the model nothing to work with: 35.9% / 28.0% / 36.1%.
Scorelines above 8%: 3. 72.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Norway has the better scoring rate (1.15) and Ivory Coast the better defensive one (0.83). Point estimate: 1-1. On expected goals the model has it 1.58 against 1.29. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +33 and +34. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 1 points. Raw profiles are 0.98 and 0.83 against 1.15 and 1.19. Most likely single result is Norway on 36.1%. The away side is rated higher. A 8.1-point range covers every outcome here. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 7 and 10 rated matches respectively. The top two outcomes are within 0.2 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.6%. It ended 1-2. Their expected shares of the points are 49.9% and 50.1%. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
eight goals for and three against accompanied Ivory Coast's four wins and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. On 25 June, Ivory Coast recorded a 2-0 win visiting Curaçao.
World Cup, 25 June brought an away meeting with Curaçao; Ivory Coast won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Ivory Coast visited Germany on 20 June (World Cup) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Ecuador travelled to face Ivory Coast (World Cup) on 14 June. For Ivory Coast, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Ivory Coast's result against Philadelphia Union II on 8 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Ivory Coast won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 4 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Ivory Coast with France. Ivory Coast won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one.
Norway: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; 12 goals scored, nine conceded. France were their latest opponents, at home on 26 June: a 4-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Iraq on 16 June.
On 26 June, France faced Norway in World Cup: Norway lost 1-4 at home, having scored one and conceded four. World Cup, 23 June brought a home meeting with Senegal; Norway won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Norway visited Iraq on 16 June (World Cup) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Morocco hosted Norway (International Friendlies) on 7 June. For Norway, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 3-1 was Norway's result against Sweden on 1 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Norway won, with three scored to one conceded.
After the match
Norway edged past Ivory Coast 2-1 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 30 June 2026. Antonio Nusa opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Norway, set up by Martin Ødegaard, to make it 1-0. Amad Diallo levelled it 74 minutes into the game for Ivory Coast, set up by Nicolas Pépé, to make it 1-1. Norway regained the lead through Erling Haaland late on, in the 86th minute, set up by Patrick Berg, to make it 2-1. Antonio Nusa (45') was booked. Ivory Coast made five changes. Amad Diallo scored in minute 74 following entry for Ivory Coast in the 60th minute. Norway picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Norway was three.