Across 4 recorded meetings back to 2006 the split is 3-0-1 in Brazil's favour on wins, 10-5 on goals. The last was 2025, 2-3 in Friendlies. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1588 and 1534 — 54 points — for a 44.7% / 26.1% / 29.2% split.
Final score: 2-1. xG: 1.58 to 1.33. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Higher rating: the home side. 54 points of rating separation. Expected shares 57.7% against 42.3% on Elo. Brazil is ahead on each half — 1.32 to 1.14 in attack, 0.87 to 0.89 in defence. Raw profiles are 1.32 and 0.87 against 1.14 and 0.89. The distribution runs from 44.7% down to 26.1%. Win-or-lose totals 73.9%; the draw takes the rest. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 8 and 8 rated matches respectively. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +88 and +34. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Brazil sits 15.5 points above the next most likely result. Most likely single result is Brazil on 44.7%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.4% leads, but only just.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Brazil were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring 15 goals and conceding four. On 24 June, Brazil recorded a 3-0 win visiting Scotland; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 at home to Panama on 31 May.
Scotland hosted Brazil (World Cup) on 24 June. For Brazil, the score was 3-0: three goals scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Brazil's result against Haiti on 20 June (World Cup), playing at home; Brazil won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 13 June fixture (World Cup) paired Brazil with Morocco. Brazil drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Egypt (International Friendlies), Brazil finished 2-1 on 6 June. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 31 May: Brazil won 6-2 against Panama at home in International Friendlies, scoring six goals and allowing two.
nine goals for and three against accompanied Japan's three wins and two draws across five outings, keeping three clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 1-1 draw at home to Sweden (25 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Tunisia on 21 June.
The 25 June fixture (World Cup) paired Japan with Sweden. Japan drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Tunisia (World Cup), Japan finished 4-0 on 21 June. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 14 June: Japan drew 2-2 against Netherlands away from home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Iceland in International Friendlies, Japan scored one and conceded zero on 31 May; the at home result was 1-0. Japan's away from home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 1-0 against England, with one goal for and zero against.
After the match
Brazil edged past Japan 2-1 at NRG Stadium, Houston on 29 June 2026. Kaishu Sano opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Japan to make it 1-0. Casemiro levelled it 56 minutes into the game for Brazil, set up by Gabriel Magalhães, to make it 1-1. Martinelli put Brazil in front in the 96th minute, set up by Bruno Guimarães, to make it 2-1. Kaishu Sano (12'), Casemiro (14'), Daichi Kamada (45'), Danilo Luiz da Silva (48') and Junnosuke Suzuki (84') were booked. Japan are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Kirin Cup. Expected goals put the gap at 1.69 to 0.23. The card tally for Brazil was two yellow cards. Brazil made four changes. Martinelli scored in minute 96 following entry for Brazil in the 66th minute. The card tally for Japan was three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Japan. one change of leader occurred in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Brazil secured the win.