Across 4 recorded meetings back to 2006 the split is 3-0-1 in Brazil's favour on wins, 10-5 on goals. The last was 2025, 2-3 in Friendlies. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1566 and 1512 — 54 points — for a 44.5% / 26.1% / 29.3% split.
Final score: 2-1. xG: 1.50 to 1.33. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 611-place difference in ranking. 54 points of rating separation. Top 13.4% against top 27.1% on percentile. Brazil is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 1.10 in attack, 0.90 to 0.98 in defence. Raw profiles are 1.13 and 0.90 against 1.10 and 0.98. The distribution runs from 44.5% down to 26.1%. Win-or-lose totals 73.8%; the draw takes the rest. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Worldwide they stand at 594 and 1205 among 4,449 rated sides. Worth noting the base: only 4 rated matches sit behind Japan's number. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Most likely single result is Brazil on 44.5%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.8% leads, but only just.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.