1602 plays 1467; the model splits it 57.0% / 23.2% / 19.8%. One edge each: scoring to Senegal (1.19 v 1.14), conceding to Belgium (0.87 v 1.14).
By percentile the separation is top 8.2% to top 72.9%. Rating separation comes to 135 points. The four component numbers read 1.14, 0.87, 1.19, 1.14. A 2,880-place difference in ranking. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.4% leads, but only just. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Global standing: 363 and 3243 of 4,449. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. A 37.2-point range top to bottom. The gap between first and second outcome is 33.8 points, Belgium ahead of the draw. 76.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The match finished 3-2. The Senegal figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Belgium carries the largest share, 57.0%. On expected goals the model has it 1.76 against 1.41.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.