1597 plays 1491; the model splits it 52.7% / 24.3% / 23.0%. Belgium holds both halves of the profile — 1.13 against 1.12 for scoring, 0.90 against 0.99 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 64.8% to 35.2%. Rating separation comes to 106 points. The four component numbers read 1.13, 0.90, 1.12, 0.99. Higher rating: the home side. Both figures rest on decent samples, 14 and 7 matches. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.6% leads, but only just. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. The gap between first and second outcome is 28.4 points, Belgium ahead of the draw. Versus the 1500 seed: +97 and -9. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. A 29.7-point range top to bottom. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. 75.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The match finished 3-2. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Belgium carries the largest share, 52.7%. On expected goals the model has it 1.51 against 1.36.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Belgium: three wins and two draws over five games; 13 goals scored, two conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 5-1 win away to New Zealand on 27 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Tunisia on 6 June.
5-1 was Belgium's result against New Zealand on 27 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Belgium won, with five scored to one conceded. The 21 June fixture (World Cup) paired Belgium with Iran. Belgium drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Egypt (World Cup), Belgium finished 1-1 on 15 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 6 June: Belgium won 5-0 against Tunisia at home in International Friendlies, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Croatia in International Friendlies, Belgium scored two and conceded zero on 2 June; the away from home result was 2-0.
ten goals for and nine against accompanied Senegal's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. A 5-0 win at home to Iraq (26 June) was their most recent result.
The 26 June fixture (World Cup) paired Senegal with Iraq. Senegal won 5-0 at home, netting five goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Norway (World Cup), Senegal finished 2-3 on 23 June. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition. 16 June: Senegal lost 1-3 against France away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Saudi Arabia in International Friendlies, Senegal scored zero and conceded zero on 9 June; the away from home result was 0-0. Senegal's away from home game on 31 May (International Friendlies) ended 2-3 against USA, with two goals for and three against.
After the match
Belgium edged past Senegal 3-2 at Lumen Field, Seattle on 1 July 2026. Habib Diarra opened the scoring in the 25th minute for Senegal to make it 1-0. Ismaïla Sarr added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for Senegal, set up by Moussa Niakhaté, to make it 2-0. Romelu Lukaku pulled one back late on, in the 86th minute for Belgium, set up by Thomas Meunier, to make it 1-2. Youri Tielemans levelled it late on, in the 89th minute for Belgium, set up by Leandro Trossard, to make it 2-2. Youri Tielemans put Belgium in front from the penalty spot in the 125th minute to make it 3-2. Brandon Mechele (64') and Rudi Garcia (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Belgium 106 points stronger than Senegal. 3 gols came after the 80th minute. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.8 to 3.54. Belgium: two yellow cards. Belgium made three changes. Thomas Meunier provided an assist following entry for Belgium in the 78th minute. six changes were recorded for Senegal. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. After trailing, Belgium secured the win.