1504 plays 1471; the model splits it 51.4% / 24.6% / 24.1%. Both components point the same way, toward USA: 1.15 to 0.98 going forward, 1.06 to 1.10 going back.
Top of the distribution: USA, 51.4%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.8%. 75.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. A 26.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. In absolute terms: USA 1.15/1.06, Bosnia-H. 0.98/1.10 on attack and defence. The two ratings differ by 33 points. Outcomes span 27.3 points. The ranking gap is 1,630 positions. Played and finished 2-0. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. xG: 1.89 to 1.41. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rounded, that is 1-1. A 4-match base for Bosnia-H.. The higher-percentile side clears the top 32.0%; the other the top 68.6%. Worldwide they stand at 1422 and 3052 among 4,449 rated sides.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.