A 308-point edge to Spain, which the model prices at 76.9% / 17.2% / 5.9%.
Just one prior encounter is on file — 1978, 1-2 in World Cup. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Attack/defence pairs: 1.19/0.53 and 1.07/1.18. The leading outcome clears the second by 59.7 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 15 and 8 rated matches respectively. Outcomes span 71.0 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. No scoreline stands out; 1-0 only leads on 13.2%. 2,748 places separate them in the global order. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Win-or-lose totals 82.8%; the draw takes the rest. Top of the distribution: Spain, 76.9%. The xG line reads 1.90 to 0.77. Result on the day: 3-0. They occupy positions 69 and 2817 in a 4,449-team ranking. Neither component contradicts the other: Spain leads 1.19-1.07 forward and 0.53-1.18 back. Its rounded call is 1-0. The two ratings differ by 308 points. Top 1.6% against top 63.3% on percentile.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.