A 297-point edge to Spain, which the model prices at 75.9% / 17.6% / 6.5%.
Just one prior encounter is on file — 1978, 1-2 in World Cup. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Attack/defence pairs: 1.41/0.62 and 1.19/1.12. The leading outcome clears the second by 58.3 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 19 and 12 rated matches respectively. Outcomes span 69.4 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. No scoreline stands out; 2-0 only leads on 10.0%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Win-or-lose totals 82.4%; the draw takes the rest. Top of the distribution: Spain, 75.9%. The xG line reads 2.15 to 0.99. Result on the day: 3-0. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +308 and +11. Neither component contradicts the other: Spain leads 1.41-1.19 forward and 0.62-1.12 back. Its rounded call is 2-0. The two ratings differ by 297 points. Expected shares 84.7% against 15.3% on Elo.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Spain's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 2 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Uruguay were their latest opponents, away on 27 June: a 1-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Saudi Arabia on 21 June.
On 27 June, Uruguay faced Spain in World Cup: Spain won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. World Cup, 21 June brought a home meeting with Saudi Arabia; Spain won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Spain hosted Cape Verde on 15 June (World Cup) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded. Peru hosted Spain (International Friendlies) on 9 June. For Spain, the score was 3-1: three goals scored, one allowed. 1-1 was Spain's result against Iraq on 4 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Spain drew, with one scored to one conceded.
Austria's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 8 scored and 6 conceded. Algeria were their latest opponents, away on 28 June: a 3-3 draw.
3-3 was Austria's result against Algeria on 28 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Austria drew, with three scored to three conceded. The 22 June fixture (World Cup) paired Austria with Argentina. Austria lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Jordan (World Cup), Austria finished 3-1 on 17 June. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition. 1 June: Austria won 1-0 against Tunisia at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Korea Republic in International Friendlies, Austria scored one and conceded zero on 31 March; the at home result was 1-0.
After the match
Spain comfortably beat Austria 3-0 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 2 July 2026. Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Spain, set up by Cucurella, to make it 1-0. Pedro Porro added to the tally 66 minutes into the game for Spain, set up by Álex Baena, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Spain extended the lead through Mikel Oyarzabal late on, in the 89th minute, set up by Cucurella, to make it 3-0. Stefan Posch (83') was booked. Spain: 75.9% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Spain's current recorded form ends with 10 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Austria are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.84 to 0.32. Spain won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 1 meeting without a win. five changes were recorded for Spain. Austria: one yellow card. Austria made five changes. Spain finished with a clean sheet.