Across 7 recorded meetings back to 2016 the split is 4-2-1 in Portugal's favour on wins, 13-8 on goals. The last was 2024, 1-1 in UEFA Nations League. History aside, the live ratings of 1613 and 1457 drive a 59.8% / 22.5% / 17.7% distribution.
Scorelines above 8%: 4. Portugal is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 0.93 in attack, 0.75 to 1.45 in defence. Attack/defence pairs: 1.13/0.75 and 0.93/1.45. Neither figure is thin: 14 and 11 matches respectively sit behind them. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. No scoreline stands out; 2-0 only leads on 10.5%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-0. Portugal leads the distribution by 37.3 points over the draw. The underlying goal expectation is 2.21 for Portugal, 0.94 for Croatia. Rating separation comes to 156 points. Played and finished 2-1. Spread across the three results is 42.1 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +113 and -43. Win-or-lose totals 77.5%; the draw takes the rest.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Portugal were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring ten goals and conceding three. On 27 June, Portugal recorded a 0-0 draw visiting Colombia; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Uzbekistan on 23 June.
Colombia hosted Portugal (World Cup) on 27 June. For Portugal, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 5-0 was Portugal's result against Uzbekistan on 23 June (World Cup), playing at home; Portugal won, with five scored to zero conceded. The 17 June fixture (World Cup) paired Portugal with Congo DR. Portugal drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Nigeria (International Friendlies), Portugal finished 2-1 on 10 June. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 6 June: Portugal won 2-1 against Chile at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing one.
Croatia's previous five results comprised three wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 8 conceded. Ghana were their latest opponents, at home on 27 June: a 2-1 win.
2-1 was Croatia's result against Ghana on 27 June (World Cup), playing at home; Croatia won, with two scored to one conceded. The 23 June fixture (World Cup) paired Croatia with Panama. Croatia won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against England (World Cup), Croatia finished 2-4 on 17 June. Their score comprised two goals, against four from the opposition. 7 June: Croatia won 2-1 against Slovenia at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Belgium in International Friendlies, Croatia scored zero and conceded two on 2 June; the at home result was 0-2.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-1 draw at Croatia on 18 November 2024 and a 2-1 home win for Portugal on 5 September 2024.
After the match
Portugal edged past Croatia 2-1 at BMO Field, Toronto on 2 July 2026. Ivan Perišić opened the scoring 53 minutes into the game for Croatia, set up by Josip Stanišić, to make it 1-0. Cristiano Ronaldo levelled it from the penalty spot 68 minutes into the game for Portugal, set up by Renato Veiga, to make it 1-1. Gonçalo Ramos put Portugal in front in the 94th minute, set up by Rafael Leão, to make it 2-1. Rúben Dias (17'), Luka Modrić (59') and Ivan Perišić (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Portugal 156 points stronger than Croatia. Every goal came after the interval. Portugal: 59.8% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Portugal's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Portugal picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Portugal was five. After coming on for Portugal in minute 63, Gonçalo Ramos scored in minute 94. The card tally for Croatia was two yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Croatia. The scoring record shows one lead change. Portugal won after falling behind.