Across 7 recorded meetings back to 2016 the split is 4-2-1 in Portugal's favour on wins, 13-8 on goals. The last was 2024, 1-1 in UEFA Nations League. History aside, the live ratings of 1564 and 1470 drive a 50.9% / 24.7% / 24.4% distribution.
Scorelines above 8%: 5. The split is one apiece: Croatia leads the attacking rate on 0.99, Portugal the defensive on 0.74. Attack/defence pairs: 0.97/0.74 and 0.99/1.12. Neither figure is thin: 10 and 7 matches respectively sit behind them. 2,510 places separate them in the global order. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. No scoreline stands out; 1-0 only leads on 12.5%. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. Portugal leads the distribution by 26.2 points over the draw. The underlying goal expectation is 1.47 for Portugal, 0.99 for Croatia. Rating separation comes to 94 points. Played and finished 2-1. Spread across the three results is 26.5 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Those ratings place them 613th and 3123th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. Win-or-lose totals 75.3%; the draw takes the rest.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.