They have 2 previous meetings dating to 1994, 4-2 on goals. Last time: 2017, 2-1 in Friendlies. Today those sides rate 1598 and 1571, 27 apart, which resolves to 40.4% / 27.0% / 32.6%.
Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The two ratings differ by 27 points. The higher-percentile side clears the top 8.7%; the other the top 12.3%. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 385th and 549th. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.2%. The gap between first and second outcome is 7.8 points, Netherlands ahead of Morocco. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The four component numbers read 1.28, 0.95, 1.07, 0.92. The model's preferred outcome is Netherlands at 40.4%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The split is one apiece: Netherlands leads the attacking rate on 1.28, Morocco the defensive on 0.92. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Spread across the three results is 13.4 points. Win-or-lose totals 73.0%; the draw takes the rest. A 164-place difference in ranking. xG: 1.60 to 1.37. Final score: 1-1. Morocco's number leans on a 6-match sample.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.