On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 1994, 4-2 on goals. Last time: 2017, 2-1 in Friendlies. Today those sides rate 1611 and 1595, 16 apart, which resolves to 38.5% / 27.4% / 34.0%.
With 14 and 9 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The two ratings differ by 16 points. The higher-rated side expects 52.3% of the points; the other side 47.7%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +111 and +95. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.9%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The four component numbers read 1.29, 0.95, 1.09, 0.81. The model's preferred outcome is Netherlands at 38.5%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The split is one apiece: Netherlands leads the attacking rate on 1.29, Morocco the defensive on 0.81. The gap between first and second outcome is 4.5 points, Netherlands ahead of Morocco. All three results are bunched inside 11.1 points. Win-or-lose totals 72.5%; the draw takes the rest. Higher rating: the home side. xG: 1.41 to 1.40. Final score: 1-1. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and six against accompanied Netherlands's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. On 25 June, Netherlands recorded a 3-1 win visiting Tunisia; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Sweden on 20 June.
The 25 June fixture (World Cup) paired Netherlands with Tunisia. Netherlands won 3-1 away from home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Sweden (World Cup), Netherlands finished 5-1 on 20 June. Their score comprised five goals, against one from the opposition. 14 June: Netherlands drew 2-2 against Japan at home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Uzbekistan in International Friendlies, Netherlands scored two and conceded one on 8 June; the at home result was 2-1. Netherlands's at home game on 3 June (International Friendlies) ended 0-1 against Algeria, with zero goals for and one against.
Morocco's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 4 conceded, with no defeats. Haiti were their latest opponents, at home on 24 June: a 4-2 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Madagascar on 2 June.
On 24 June, Haiti faced Morocco in World Cup: Morocco won 4-2 at home, having scored four and conceded two. World Cup, 19 June brought an away meeting with Scotland; Morocco won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Morocco visited Brazil on 13 June (World Cup) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Norway travelled to face Morocco (International Friendlies) on 7 June. For Morocco, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 4-0 was Morocco's result against Madagascar on 2 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Morocco won, with four scored to zero conceded.
After the match
Netherlands and Morocco drew 1-1 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey on 30 June 2026. The tie went to penalties, where Morocco won the shootout 3-2. Cody Gakpo opened the scoring 72 minutes into the game for Netherlands, set up by Crysencio Summerville, to make it 1-0. Issa Diop levelled it in the 91st minute for Morocco, set up by Chemsdine Talbi, to make it 1-1. Issa Diop (47') was booked. Netherlands are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Netherlands made six changes. The card tally for Morocco was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Morocco. Chemsdine Talbi provided an assist following entry for Morocco in the 86th minute.