The model has no meaningful preference: 1522 against 1511, split 37.8% / 27.6% / 34.6%.
A 10.2-point range covers every outcome here. Played and finished 0-1. Raw profiles are 1.05 and 0.82 against 1.01 and 0.86. 11 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. The component ratings barely separate them — 1.05 and 1.01 for scoring, 0.82 and 0.86 for conceding — so the model is not leaning on a stylistic mismatch here. Expected goals 1.21-1.12. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 13.2%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Someone wins 72.4% of the time by this model. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 7 and 8 matches. The top two outcomes are within 3.2 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. South Africa carries the largest share, 37.8%. The higher-rated side expects 51.6% of the points; the other side 48.4%. Versus the 1500 seed: +22 and +11.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
South Africa came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding four. On 25 June, South Africa recorded a 1-0 win hosting Korea Republic.
The 25 June fixture (World Cup) paired South Africa with Korea Republic. South Africa won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Czechia (World Cup), South Africa finished 1-1 on 18 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 11 June: South Africa lost 0-2 against Mexico away from home in World Cup, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Jamaica in International Friendlies, South Africa scored one and conceded one on 6 June; the away from home result was 1-1. South Africa's at home game on 29 May (International Friendlies) ended 0-0 against Nicaragua, with zero goals for and zero against.
Canada came into the game with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding four. On 24 June, Canada recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Switzerland; their biggest win in that spell was 6-0 at home to Qatar on 18 June.
Canada's away from home game on 24 June (World Cup) ended 1-2 against Switzerland, with one goal for and two against. On 18 June, Qatar faced Canada in World Cup: Canada won 6-0 at home, having scored six and conceded zero. World Cup, 12 June brought a home meeting with Bosnia-H.; Canada drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Canada hosted Rep. Of Ireland on 5 June (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Uzbekistan travelled to face Canada (International Friendlies) on 2 June. For Canada, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed.
After the match
Canada edged past South Africa 1-0 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 28 June 2026. Stephen Eustáquio opened the scoring in the 92nd minute for Canada to make it 1-0. Nathan-Dylan Saliba (54') and Niko Sigur (67') were booked. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, South Africa just 11 rating points ahead of Canada, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. three changes were recorded for South Africa. two yellow cards went to Canada. Canada: five substitutions. Niko Sigur, on in the 59th minute, was booked. Canada kept their opponents scoreless.