An unusually heavy draw share here at 27.0%.
Spread across the three results is 13.7 points. Played and finished 0-1. Raw profiles are 0.86 and 0.94 against 1.07 and 0.98. 29 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. One edge each: scoring to Canada (1.07 v 0.86), conceding to South Africa (0.94 v 0.98). Expected goals 1.14-1.36. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.7%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Someone wins 73.1% of the time by this model. South Africa's number leans on a 4-match sample. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Canada leads the distribution by 8.3 points over South Africa. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Canada carries the largest share, 40.7%. The higher-percentile side clears the top 39.1%; the other the top 72.7%. Global standing: 3234 and 1740 of 4,449. They are 1,494 places apart on the global list.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.