Prior record: 3-0-2 across 5 since 2012. Most recent 2020, 4-2 in UEFA Nations League. Today those sides rate 1629 and 1468, 161 apart, which resolves to 60.5% / 22.4% / 17.2%.
They are 2,914 places apart on the global list. Worth noting the base: only 4 rated matches sit behind Sweden's number. Its rounded call is 1-1. Outcomes span 43.3 points. Distance between the ratings: 161 points, wide on this scale. Those ratings place them 280th and 3194th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. A decisive result carries 77.7% against 22.4% for the draw. Goal expectation splits 1.96 to 1.28. Neither component contradicts the other: France leads 1.22-1.05 forward and 0.91-1.19 back. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Scorelines above 8%: 2. One sits in the top 6.3%, the other the top 71.8%. The leading outcome clears the second by 38.1 points. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.8% leads, but only just. Top of the distribution: France, 60.5%. Result on the day: 3-0.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.