Prior record: 3-0-2 across 5 since 2012. Most recent 2020, 4-2 in UEFA Nations League. Today those sides rate 1663 and 1506, 157 apart, which resolves to 59.8% / 22.5% / 17.6%.
Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. The ratings draw on 18 and 8 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Outcomes span 42.2 points. Distance between the ratings: 157 points, wide on this scale. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +163 and +6. A decisive result carries 77.4% against 22.5% for the draw. Goal expectation splits 1.76 to 1.18. Neither component contradicts the other: France leads 1.25-1.09 forward and 0.80-1.05 back. The leading outcome clears the second by 37.3 points. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The higher rating expects 71.2% of the points, the lower 28.8%. Its rounded call is 1-1. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.0% leads, but only just. Top of the distribution: France, 59.8%. Result on the day: 3-0.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
France came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 14 goals and conceding five. On 26 June, France recorded a 4-1 win visiting Norway.
26 June: France won 4-1 against Norway away from home in World Cup, scoring four goals and allowing one. Against Iraq in World Cup, France scored three and conceded zero on 22 June; the at home result was 3-0. France's at home game on 16 June (World Cup) ended 3-1 against Senegal, with three goals for and one against. On 8 June, Northern Ireland faced France in International Friendlies: France won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. International Friendlies, 4 June brought a home meeting with Ivory Coast; France lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded.
Sweden: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, 12 conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to Japan on 25 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Tunisia on 15 June.
On 25 June, Japan faced Sweden in World Cup: Sweden drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. World Cup, 20 June brought an away meeting with Netherlands; Sweden lost 1-5, a return of one goal scored and five conceded. Sweden hosted Tunisia on 15 June (World Cup) and won 5-1; their goals totalled five, compared with one conceded. Greece travelled to face Sweden (International Friendlies) on 4 June. For Sweden, the score was 2-2: two goals scored, two allowed. 1-3 was Sweden's result against Norway on 1 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Sweden lost, with one scored to three conceded.
Earlier results between these sides included a 2-0 home win for Sweden on 19 June 2012.
After the match
France comfortably beat Sweden 3-0 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 30 June 2026. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring in the 45th minute for France, set up by Ousmane Dembélé, to make it 1-0. Bradley Barcola added to the tally 53 minutes into the game for France, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, France extended the lead through Kylian Mbappé 74 minutes into the game, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 3-0. 59.8% is France's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. France are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Sweden are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 3.17 to 0.65. France: five substitutions. three changes were recorded for Sweden. France conceded no goals.