Rated 1580 and 1483, these two produce a 51.3% / 24.6% / 24.1% split. Neither component contradicts the other: Germany leads 1.32-0.85 forward and 0.90-0.96 back.
Just one prior encounter is on file — 2002, 1-0 in World Cup. Top 10.9% against top 54.2% on percentile. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.4%. 51.3% goes to Germany, the model's lean. Result on the day: 1-1. The four component numbers read 1.32, 0.90, 0.85, 0.96. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.71 and 1.03. The three results cover 27.2 points. Germany leads the distribution by 26.7 points over the draw. Those ratings place them 485th and 2412th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. A 1,927-place difference in ranking. Someone wins 75.4% of the time by this model. Only 5 rated matches back the Paraguay figure. Its point estimate is 1-1. Ratings sit 97 apart.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.