Rated 1576 and 1505, these two produce a 47.3% / 25.5% / 27.2% split. Neither component contradicts the other: Germany leads 1.15-0.88 forward and 0.78-0.85 back.
Just one prior encounter is on file — 2002, 1-0 in World Cup. Expected shares 60.1% against 39.9% on Elo. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. No scoreline stands out; 1-0 only leads on 14.0%. 47.3% goes to Germany, the model's lean. Result on the day: 1-1. The four component numbers read 1.15, 0.78, 0.88, 0.85. Germany leads the distribution by 20.1 points over Paraguay. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.32 and 0.93. The three results cover 21.8 points. Its point estimate is 1-0. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +76 and +5. Higher rating: the home side. Someone wins 74.5% of the time by this model. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Both figures rest on decent samples, 13 and 7 matches. Ratings sit 71 apart.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Germany's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 16 scored and 5 conceded. Ecuador were their latest opponents, away on 25 June: a 2-1 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 7-1 at home to Curaçao on 14 June.
Playing away from home against Ecuador (World Cup), Germany finished 1-2 on 25 June. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 20 June: Germany won 2-1 against Ivory Coast at home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Curaçao in World Cup, Germany scored seven and conceded one on 14 June; the at home result was 7-1. Germany's away from home game on 6 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-1 against USA, with two goals for and one against. On 31 May, Finland faced Germany in International Friendlies: Germany won 4-0 at home, having scored four and conceded zero.
Paraguay came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding six, keeping three clean sheets. On 26 June, Paraguay recorded a 0-0 draw hosting Australia; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Nicaragua on 5 June.
Paraguay's at home game on 26 June (World Cup) ended 0-0 against Australia, with zero goals for and zero against. On 20 June, Turkey faced Paraguay in World Cup: Paraguay won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. World Cup, 13 June brought an away meeting with USA; Paraguay lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded. Paraguay hosted Nicaragua on 5 June (International Friendlies) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded. Morocco hosted Paraguay (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Paraguay, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
After the match
Germany and Paraguay drew 1-1 at Gillette Stadium, Boston on 29 June 2026. The tie went to penalties, where Paraguay won the shootout 4-3. Julio Enciso opened the scoring in the 42nd minute for Paraguay, set up by Matías Galarza, to make it 1-0. Kai Havertz levelled it 54 minutes into the game for Germany, set up by Florian Wirtz, to make it 1-1. Andrés Cubas (65'), Miguel Almirón (105'), Kai Havertz (106'), Jamal Musiala (115') and Matías Galarza (117') were booked. The card tally for Germany was two yellow cards. six changes were recorded for Germany. Jamal Musiala entered for Germany at 63 minutes and later was booked. three yellow cards went to Paraguay. Paraguay: six substitutions.