Too close to call: 35.4% / 27.8% / 36.8%, top outcome 36.8%.
The underlying goal expectation is 1.21 for Croatia, 1.30 for Ghana. Percentile-wise: top 64.7% versus top 70.2%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. It ended 2-1. Only 1.4 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Attack/defence pairs: 0.99/1.12 and 0.86/0.91. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.8% leads, but only just. Ghana carries the largest share, 36.8%. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 3123th and 2878th of 4,449. The model gives 72.2% to someone winning. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.0 points. Point estimate: 1-1. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. They are 245 places apart on the global list. A 4-match base for Ghana. 5 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. Honours split: 0.99 forward for Croatia, 0.91 back for Ghana.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.