Too close to call: 39.0% / 27.3% / 33.6%, top outcome 39.0%.
The underlying goal expectation is 1.34 for Croatia, 1.66 for Ghana. Elo expected shares: 52.7% and 47.3%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. It ended 2-1. A 5.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Attack/defence pairs: 0.93/1.45 and 0.85/1.06. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.1% leads, but only just. Croatia carries the largest share, 39.0%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -43 and -62. The model gives 72.6% to someone winning. Top to bottom the spread is only 11.7 points. Point estimate: 1-1. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. A 6-match base for Ghana. 19 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. Honours split: 0.93 forward for Croatia, 1.06 back for Ghana.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
six goals for and ten against accompanied Croatia's two wins and three defeats across five outings. A 1-0 win away to Panama (23 June) was their most recent result.
The 23 June fixture (World Cup) paired Croatia with Panama. Croatia won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against England (World Cup), Croatia finished 2-4 on 17 June. Their score comprised two goals, against four from the opposition. 7 June: Croatia won 2-1 against Slovenia at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against Belgium in International Friendlies, Croatia scored zero and conceded two on 2 June; the at home result was 0-2. Croatia's away from home game on 1 April (International Friendlies) ended 1-3 against Brazil, with one goal for and three against.
Croatia: 31st, three points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Ghana's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 3 scored and 5 conceded. England were their latest opponents, away on 23 June: a 0-0 draw.
0-0 was Ghana's result against England on 23 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Ghana drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 17 June fixture (World Cup) paired Ghana with Panama. Ghana won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Wales (International Friendlies), Ghana finished 1-1 on 2 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 23 May: Ghana lost 0-2 against Mexico away from home in International Friendlies, scoring zero goals and allowing two. Against Germany in International Friendlies, Ghana scored one and conceded two on 30 March; the away from home result was 1-2.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Ghana 20th after two matches and four points.
After the match
Croatia edged past Ghana 2-1 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia on 27 June 2026. Petar Sucic opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Croatia, set up by Mateo Kovačić, to make it 1-0. Derrick Luckassen levelled it 73 minutes into the game for Ghana, set up by Ernest Nuamah, to make it 1-1. Croatia regained the lead through Nikola Vlašić late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Luka Modrić, to make it 2-1. Ivan Perišić (68') and Kojo Peprah Oppong (90') were booked. Ghana's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualification. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.42 to 0.64. Croatia picked up one yellow card. Croatia: four substitutions. one yellow card went to Ghana. The substitution total for Ghana was five. After coming on for Ghana in minute 46, Kojo Peprah Oppong was booked. Ernest Nuamah provided an assist following entry for Ghana in the 72nd minute.