England enters 293 points clear of Panama on rating, which the model reads as 6.7% / 17.7% / 75.5%.
A 6-match base for Panama. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The tie closed out 0-2. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -75 and +218. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. There is no trade-off to weigh: England scores at the higher rate (1.61 to 0.81) and concedes at the lower (0.90 to 0.96). Goal expectation splits 0.99 to 2.09. The model gives 82.2% to someone winning. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Flat distribution — 0-2 tops it at just 10.1%. A 293-point spread sits between the two figures. In absolute terms: Panama 0.81/0.96, England 1.61/0.90 on attack and defence. Reduced to one result that is 0-2. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. England sits 57.8 points above the next most likely result. Between best and worst outcome there is 68.8 points of daylight. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2018, 1-6 in World Cup. Elo expected shares: 15.6% and 84.4%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and 11 against accompanied Panama's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. On 23 June, Panama recorded a 1-0 defeat hosting Croatia.
23 June: Panama lost 0-1 against Croatia at home in World Cup, scoring zero goals and allowing one. Against Ghana in World Cup, Panama scored zero and conceded one on 17 June; the away from home result was 0-1. Panama's at home game on 6 June (International Friendlies) ended 1-1 against Bosnia-H., with one goal for and one against. On 4 June, Dominican Republic faced Panama in International Friendlies: Panama won 4-2 at home, having scored four and conceded two. International Friendlies, 31 May brought an away meeting with Brazil; Panama lost 2-6, a return of two goals scored and six conceded.
Panama stood 43rd in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with zero points from two matches.
England came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. On 23 June, England recorded a 0-0 draw hosting Ghana; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Costa Rica on 10 June.
The 23 June fixture (World Cup) paired England with Ghana. England drew 0-0 at home, netting zero goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Croatia (World Cup), England finished 4-2 on 17 June. Their score comprised four goals, against two from the opposition. 10 June: England won 3-0 against Costa Rica at home in International Friendlies, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against New Zealand in International Friendlies, England scored one and conceded zero on 6 June; the at home result was 1-0. England's at home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 0-1 against Japan, with zero goals for and one against.
England: 19th, four points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 6-1 home win for England on 24 June 2018.
After the match
England beat Panama 2-0 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 27 June 2026. Jude Bellingham opened the scoring 62 minutes into the game for England, set up by Bukayo Saka, to make it 1-0. Harry Kane added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for England, set up by Jude Bellingham, to make it 2-0. José Fajardo (53'), Jarell Quansah (61') and Andrés Andrade (83') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have England 293 points stronger than Panama. England won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 75.5%. Panama picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Panama was five. After coming on for Panama in minute 46, José Fajardo was booked. England: one yellow card. England made five changes. A clean sheet for England.