Before the numbers, the caveat: 3 rated matches behind Panama. On that base the model returns 1423 against 1701 and a 7.7% / 18.3% / 74.0% split.
A 3-match base for Panama. 3,902 places separate them in the global order. The tie closed out 0-2. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 4052th and 150th. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. One half each — England in front on 1.33, Panama behind on 1.00. Goal expectation splits 1.13 to 1.79. The model gives 81.7% to someone winning. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.9%. A 278-point spread sits between the two figures. In absolute terms: Panama 0.83/1.00, England 1.33/1.01 on attack and defence. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. England sits 55.7 points above the next most likely result. Between best and worst outcome there is 66.3 points of daylight. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2018, 1-6 in World Cup. Percentile-wise: top 3.4% versus top 91.1%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.