Draw weight is the story: 26.9% of a 32.0% / 26.9% / 41.1% split.
These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The higher-rated side expects 54.6% of the points; the other side 45.4%. Result on the day: 0-1. Higher rating: the away side. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -75 and -43. Croatia leads the distribution by 9.1 points over Panama. Rating separation comes to 32 points. Outcomes span 14.2 points. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.7%. The model gives 73.1% to someone winning. On expected goals the model has it 1.59 against 1.20. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Only 6 rated matches back the Panama figure. The edge is split: Croatia scores at the higher rate (0.93 to 0.81), Panama concedes at the lower (0.96 to 1.45). The model's preferred outcome is Croatia at 41.1%. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. The four component numbers read 0.81, 0.96, 0.93, 1.45.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Panama: two wins, one draw and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, 11 conceded. Ghana were their latest opponents, away on 17 June: a 1-0 defeat.
Playing away from home against Ghana (World Cup), Panama finished 0-1 on 17 June. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 6 June: Panama drew 1-1 against Bosnia-H. at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Dominican Republic in International Friendlies, Panama scored four and conceded two on 4 June; the at home result was 4-2. Panama's away from home game on 31 May (International Friendlies) ended 2-6 against Brazil, with two goals for and six against. On 31 March, South Africa faced Panama in International Friendlies: Panama won 2-1 away from home, having scored two and conceded one.
zero points in one match put Panama 40th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
Croatia came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding 11. On 17 June, Croatia recorded a 4-2 defeat visiting England.
17 June: Croatia lost 2-4 against England away from home in World Cup, scoring two goals and allowing four. Against Slovenia in International Friendlies, Croatia scored two and conceded one on 7 June; the at home result was 2-1. Croatia's at home game on 2 June (International Friendlies) ended 0-2 against Belgium, with zero goals for and two against. On 1 April, Brazil faced Croatia in International Friendlies: Croatia lost 1-3 away from home, having scored one and conceded three. International Friendlies, 26 March brought an away meeting with Colombia; Croatia won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded.
Croatia stood 41st in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with zero points from one match.
After the match
Croatia edged past Panama 1-0 at BMO Field, Toronto on 23 June 2026. Ante Budimir opened the scoring 54 minutes into the game for Croatia, set up by Josip Stanišić, to make it 1-0. Édgar Bárcenas (61') and Petar Sucic (90') were booked. Panama: one yellow card. four changes were recorded for Panama. one yellow card went to Croatia. The substitution total for Croatia was three. After coming on for Croatia in minute 46, Ante Budimir scored in minute 54. Petar Sucic was booked following entry for Croatia in the 72nd minute. Croatia kept their opponents scoreless.