Panama has 3 rated matches behind their rating — thin. The split reads 30.2% / 26.4% / 43.5%.
These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. The higher-percentile side clears the top 70.2%; the other the top 91.1%. Result on the day: 0-1. A 929-place difference in ranking. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 4052th and 3123th. Croatia leads the distribution by 13.3 points over Panama. Rating separation comes to 47 points. Outcomes span 17.1 points. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.6%. The model gives 73.7% to someone winning. On expected goals the model has it 1.25 against 1.34. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Only 3 rated matches back the Panama figure. The edge is split: Croatia scores at the higher rate (0.99 to 0.83), Panama concedes at the lower (1.00 to 1.12). The model's preferred outcome is Croatia at 43.5%. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The four component numbers read 0.83, 1.00, 0.99, 1.12.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.