226 points is a wide separation: England rates 1701, Ghana 1475. That resolves to 68.6% / 20.1% / 11.3%.
226 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The four component numbers read 1.33, 1.01, 0.86, 0.91. England carries the largest share, 68.6%. Ghana: only 4 rated matches. Someone wins 79.9% of the time by this model. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. xG: 1.63 to 1.17. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.6%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The leading outcome clears the second by 48.5 points. One edge each: scoring to England (1.33 v 0.86), conceding to Ghana (0.91 v 1.01). Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 150th and 2878th of 4,449. They are 2,728 places apart on the global list. Result on the day: 0-0. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. The distribution runs from 68.6% down to 11.3%. The higher-percentile side clears the top 3.4%; the other the top 64.7%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.