280 points is a wide separation: England rates 1718, Ghana 1438. That resolves to 74.3% / 18.2% / 7.5%.
280 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The four component numbers read 1.61, 0.90, 0.85, 1.06. England carries the largest share, 74.3%. Ghana: only 6 rated matches. Someone wins 81.8% of the time by this model. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. xG: 2.32 to 1.03. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.7%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The leading outcome clears the second by 56.1 points. Neither component contradicts the other: England leads 1.61-0.85 forward and 0.90-1.06 back. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +218 and -62. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Result on the day: 0-0. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. The distribution runs from 74.3% down to 7.5%. The higher-rated side expects 83.4% of the points; the other side 16.6%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
nine goals for and four against accompanied England's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 4-2 win at home to Croatia (17 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Costa Rica on 10 June.
World Cup, 17 June brought a home meeting with Croatia; England won 4-2, a return of four goals scored and two conceded. England hosted Costa Rica on 10 June (International Friendlies) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. New Zealand travelled to face England (International Friendlies) on 6 June. For England, the score was 1-0: one goal scored, zero allowed. 0-1 was England's result against Japan on 31 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; England lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 27 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired England with Uruguay. England drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.
England stood 16th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from one match.
four goals for and ten against accompanied Ghana's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. A 1-0 win at home to Panama (17 June) was their most recent result.
Ghana's at home game on 17 June (World Cup) ended 1-0 against Panama, with one goal for and zero against. On 2 June, Wales faced Ghana in International Friendlies: Ghana drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 23 May brought an away meeting with Mexico; Ghana lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Ghana visited Germany on 30 March (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Austria hosted Ghana (International Friendlies) on 27 March. For Ghana, the score was 1-5: one goal scored, five allowed.
Ghana stood 18th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from one match.
After the match
England and Ghana could not be separated in a goalless draw at Gillette Stadium, Boston on 23 June 2026. Declan Rice (41') and Iñaki Williams (60') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have England 280 points stronger than Ghana. Ghana's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualification. The card tally for England was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for England. Ghana: one yellow card. Ghana made four changes. England finished with a clean sheet. A clean sheet for Ghana.