No separation at all — 38.1% / 27.5% / 34.3% across the three results.
Ghana has the better scoring rate (0.85) and Panama the better defensive one (0.96). The top two outcomes are within 3.8 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Win-or-lose totals 72.4%; the draw takes the rest. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. On expected goals the model has it 1.10 against 1.17. A 13-point difference on the rating scale. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Versus the 1500 seed: -62 and -75. The Ghana figure is drawn from 6 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Ghana carries the largest share, 38.1%. It ended 1-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Raw profiles are 0.85 and 1.06 against 0.81 and 0.96. Expected shares 51.9% against 48.1% on Elo. The three outcomes sit within 10.6 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 13.3% leads, but only just.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Ghana's previous five results comprised two draws and three defeats. Their goal totals were 5 scored and 12 conceded, with no wins. Wales were their latest opponents, away on 2 June: a 1-1 draw.
1-1 was Ghana's result against Wales on 2 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Ghana drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 23 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Ghana with Mexico. Ghana lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Germany (International Friendlies), Ghana finished 1-2 on 30 March. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 27 March: Ghana lost 1-5 against Austria away from home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing five. Against Mozambique in Africa Cup of Nations, Ghana scored two and conceded two on 22 January 2024; the away from home result was 2-2.
Panama's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 11 conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Bosnia-H. on 6 June.
Panama hosted Bosnia-H. on 6 June (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Dominican Republic travelled to face Panama (International Friendlies) on 4 June. For Panama, the score was 4-2: four goals scored, two allowed. 2-6 was Panama's result against Brazil on 31 May (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Panama lost, with two scored to six conceded. The 31 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Panama with South Africa. Panama won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against South Africa (International Friendlies), Panama finished 1-1 on 27 March. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
After the match
Ghana edged past Panama 1-0 at BMO Field, Toronto on 17 June 2026. Caleb Yirenkyi opened the scoring in the 95th minute for Ghana, set up by Brandon Thomas-Asante, to make it 1-0. Caleb Yirenkyi (16'), César Blackman (72') and Carlos Harvey (90') were booked. Ghana's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Qualification. one yellow card went to Ghana. The substitution total for Ghana was five. After coming on for Ghana in minute 58, Brandon Thomas-Asante provided an assist. The card tally for Panama was two yellow cards. Panama made four changes. Ghana kept their opponents scoreless.