The head-to-head counts 5 recorded meetings since 2018: 3 to England, 1 to Croatia, 1 drawn, 11-3 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 7-0 in UEFA Nations League. History aside, the live ratings of 1718 and 1457 drive a 72.4% / 18.9% / 8.7% distribution.
The scoreline spread is even — 3-1 on 8.1% leads, but only just. In absolute terms: England 1.61/0.90, Croatia 0.93/1.45 on attack and defence. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +218 and -43. There is no trade-off to weigh: England scores at the higher rate (1.61 to 0.93) and concedes at the lower (0.90 to 1.45). Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 3-1. England carries the largest share, 72.4%. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Behind them are 19 and 11 rated matches. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The distribution runs from 72.4% down to 8.7%. The two ratings differ by 261 points. Elo expected shares: 81.8% and 18.2%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Goal expectation splits 3.16 to 1.13. The gap between first and second outcome is 53.5 points, England ahead of the draw.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
England: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; ten goals scored, two conceded, keeping three clean sheets. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to Costa Rica on 10 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Rep. Of Ireland on 17 November 2024.
Playing at home against Costa Rica (International Friendlies), England finished 3-0 on 10 June. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 6 June: England won 1-0 against New Zealand at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Japan in International Friendlies, England scored zero and conceded one on 31 March; the at home result was 0-1. England's at home game on 27 March (International Friendlies) ended 1-1 against Uruguay, with one goal for and one against. On 17 November 2024, Rep. Of Ireland faced England in UEFA Nations League: England won 5-0 at home, having scored five and conceded zero.
Croatia came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding nine. On 7 June, Croatia recorded a 2-1 win hosting Slovenia.
Croatia's at home game on 7 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-1 against Slovenia, with two goals for and one against. On 2 June, Belgium faced Croatia in International Friendlies: Croatia lost 0-2 at home, having scored zero and conceded two. International Friendlies, 1 April brought an away meeting with Brazil; Croatia lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Croatia visited Colombia on 26 March (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. France hosted Croatia (UEFA Nations League) on 23 March 2025. For Croatia, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed.
Earlier results between these sides included a 1-0 home win for England on 13 June 2021 and a 2-1 home win for Croatia on 11 July 2018.
After the match
England beat Croatia 4-2 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 17 June 2026. Harry Kane opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 12 minutes for England, set up by Noni Madueke, to make it 1-0. Martin Baturina levelled it in the 36th minute for Croatia, set up by Petar Sucic, to make it 1-1. England regained the lead through Harry Kane in the 42nd minute, set up by Declan Rice, to make it 2-1. Jude Bellingham added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for England to make it 3-1. Petar Musa pulled one back 50 minutes into the game for Croatia, set up by Ivan Perišić, to make it 2-3. With the 6th goal, England extended the lead through Marcus Rashford late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Bukayo Saka, to make it 4-2. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have England 261 points stronger than Croatia. 72.4% is England's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Expected goals put the gap at 3.2 to 0.7. The substitution total for England was five. After coming on for England in minute 72, Marcus Rashford scored in minute 85. Bukayo Saka provided an assist following entry for England in the 72nd minute. The substitution total for Croatia was five.