The head-to-head runs to 4 meetings since 2018: 2 to England, 1 to Croatia, 1 drawn, 4-3 on aggregate. Most recently 2021, 1-0 in Euro Championship. History aside, the live ratings of 1701 and 1470 drive a 69.1% / 19.9% / 11.0% distribution.
The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 9.5% leads, but only just. In absolute terms: England 1.33/1.01, Croatia 0.99/1.12 on attack and defence. Worldwide they stand at 150 and 3123 among 4,449 rated sides. There is no trade-off to weigh: England scores at the higher rate (1.33 to 0.99) and concedes at the lower (1.01 to 1.12). Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. England carries the largest share, 69.1%. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Behind them are 15 and 7 rated matches. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The distribution runs from 69.1% down to 11.0%. The two ratings differ by 231 points. Percentile-wise: top 3.4% versus top 70.2%. They are 2,973 places apart on the global list. Goal expectation splits 2.01 to 1.35. The gap between first and second outcome is 49.2 points, England ahead of the draw.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.