Read this with the sample size in view: Uzbekistan's rating comes from 3 rated matches. The output — 1488 against 1389, splitting 51.6% / 24.5% / 23.9% — is what the model holds, but the confidence behind it is thinner than the decimals suggest.
Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.1%. A 2,191-place difference in ranking. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Those ratings place them 2087th and 4278th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. In absolute terms: Congo DR 0.99/0.99, Uzbekistan 0.91/1.29 on attack and defence. Congo DR sits 27.1 points above the next most likely result. The Uzbekistan figure is drawn from 3 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Most likely single result is Congo DR on 51.6%. The two ratings differ by 99 points. 75.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The three results cover 27.7 points. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.72 and 1.22. Congo DR is ahead on each half — 0.99 to 0.91 in attack, 0.99 to 1.29 in defence.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.