1501 plays 1410; the model splits it 50.4% / 24.8% / 24.8%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.04 to 0.97 says Uzbekistan, 0.94 to 1.24 says Congo DR.
The model's expected-goals figures are 1.62 and 1.32. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Congo DR sits 25.6 points above the next most likely result. The two ratings differ by 91 points. The Uzbekistan figure is drawn from 6 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Higher rating: the home side. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. 75.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The tie closed out 3-1. In absolute terms: Congo DR 0.97/0.94, Uzbekistan 1.04/1.24 on attack and defence. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +1 and -90. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.3%. The three results cover 25.6 points. The higher rating expects 62.8% of the points, the lower 37.2%. Most likely single result is Congo DR on 50.4%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Congo DR's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 4 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat away to Colombia on 24 June.
On 24 June, Colombia faced Congo DR in World Cup: Congo DR lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. World Cup, 17 June brought an away meeting with Portugal; Congo DR drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Congo DR hosted Chile on 9 June (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Denmark travelled to face Congo DR (International Friendlies) on 3 June. For Congo DR, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 2-0 was Congo DR's result against Bermuda on 25 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; Congo DR won, with two scored to zero conceded.
one point in two matches put Congo DR 38th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
Uzbekistan: one win and four defeats over five games; six goals scored, 14 conceded. Portugal were their latest opponents, away on 23 June: a 5-0 defeat.
Playing away from home against Portugal (World Cup), Uzbekistan finished 0-5 on 23 June. Their score comprised zero goals, against five from the opposition. 18 June: Uzbekistan lost 1-3 against Colombia at home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing three. Against Netherlands in International Friendlies, Uzbekistan scored one and conceded two on 8 June; the away from home result was 1-2. Uzbekistan's away from home game on 2 June (International Friendlies) ended 0-2 against Canada, with zero goals for and two against. On 30 January, FC Urartu faced Uzbekistan in International Friendlies: Uzbekistan won 4-2 at home, having scored four and conceded two.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Uzbekistan 46th after two matches and zero points.
After the match
Congo DR beat Uzbekistan 3-1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta on 27 June 2026. Eldor Shomurodov opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Uzbekistan, set up by Akmal Mozgovoy, to make it 1-0. Yoane Wissa levelled it from the penalty spot 68 minutes into the game for Congo DR to make it 1-1. Fiston Mayele put Congo DR in front 78 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Yoane Wissa added to the tally in the 91st minute for Congo DR, set up by Meschack Elia, to make it 3-1. Noah Sadiki (21'), Abdukodir Khusanov (43'), Nathanael Mbuku (45'), Sherzod Nasrullayev (48') and Samuel Moutoussamy (62') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Congo DR are 91 points stronger than Uzbekistan. Expected goals put the gap at 2.18 to 0.2. Congo DR picked up three yellow cards. The substitution total for Congo DR was five. After coming on for Congo DR in minute 51, Fiston Mayele scored in minute 78. Meschack Elia provided an assist following entry for Congo DR in the 72nd minute. two yellow cards went to Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan: five substitutions. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. Congo DR won after falling behind.