Draw weight is the story: 27.1% of a 32.7% / 27.1% / 40.2% split.
Reduced to one result that is 0-1. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-1 on 14.9%. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.1% for the draw. The ratings draw on 8 and 14 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. In absolute terms: Colombia 0.89/0.72, Portugal 1.13/0.75 on attack and defence. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +87 and +113. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Honours split: 1.13 forward for Portugal, 0.72 back for Colombia. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 26 points. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.90 and 1.10. The away side is rated higher. It ended 0-0. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Top of the distribution: Portugal, 40.2%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 46.3% to 53.7%. The distribution runs from 40.2% down to 27.1%. The gap between first and second outcome is 7.5 points, Portugal ahead of Colombia.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Colombia came into the game with four wins and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding five. On 24 June, Colombia recorded a 1-0 win hosting Congo DR.
Colombia's at home game on 24 June (World Cup) ended 1-0 against Congo DR, with one goal for and zero against. On 18 June, Uzbekistan faced Colombia in World Cup: Colombia won 3-1 away from home, having scored three and conceded one. International Friendlies, 7 June brought a home meeting with Jordan; Colombia won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Colombia hosted Costa Rica on 1 June (International Friendlies) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. France travelled to face Colombia (International Friendlies) on 29 March. For Colombia, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed.
Colombia stood 12th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with six points from two matches.
Portugal: four wins and one draw over five games; 12 goals scored, three conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 5-0 win at home to Uzbekistan on 23 June.
5-0 was Portugal's result against Uzbekistan on 23 June (World Cup), playing at home; Portugal won, with five scored to zero conceded. The 17 June fixture (World Cup) paired Portugal with Congo DR. Portugal drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Nigeria (International Friendlies), Portugal finished 2-1 on 10 June. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 6 June: Portugal won 2-1 against Chile at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing one. Against USA in International Friendlies, Portugal scored two and conceded zero on 31 March; the away from home result was 2-0.
four points in two matches put Portugal 20th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Colombia and Portugal could not be separated in a goalless draw at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami on 27 June 2026. Gustavo Puerta (86') was booked. Portugal's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Colombia: one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Colombia. five changes were recorded for Portugal. A clean sheet for Colombia. A clean sheet for Portugal.