Draw weight is the story: 27.1% of a 40.2% / 27.1% / 32.7% split.
The gap between first and second outcome is 7.5 points, Colombia ahead of Portugal. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-1 on 14.7%. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.1% for the draw. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. In absolute terms: Colombia 0.92/0.77, Portugal 0.97/0.74 on attack and defence. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 428th and 613th. Colombia's number leans on a 5-match sample. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 0.92 versus 0.97 in attack and 0.77 versus 0.74 at the back. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 26 points. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.92 and 1.01. The ranking gap is 185 positions. It ended 0-0. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Top of the distribution: Colombia, 40.2%. By percentile the separation is top 9.6% to top 13.8%. The distribution runs from 40.2% down to 27.1%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.