1587 plays 1501; the model splits it 49.6% / 25.0% / 25.4%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Congo DR the scoring rate at 0.97, Colombia the conceding rate at 0.72.
The higher rating belongs to the home side. Colombia holds a 24.2-point edge on the next outcome. The two ratings differ by 86 points. Final score: 1-0. Flat distribution — 1-0 tops it at just 14.3%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +87 and +1. Most and least likely outcomes are 24.6 points apart. Win-or-lose totals 75.0%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals 1.13-0.94. The higher rating expects 62.1% of the points, the lower 37.9%. The model's preferred outcome is Colombia at 49.6%. In absolute terms: Colombia 0.89/0.72, Congo DR 0.97/0.94 on attack and defence. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 8 and 8 rated matches respectively. Rounded, that is 1-0. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Colombia: three wins and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 3-1 win away to Uzbekistan on 18 June.
On 18 June, Uzbekistan faced Colombia in World Cup: Colombia won 3-1 away from home, having scored three and conceded one. International Friendlies, 7 June brought a home meeting with Jordan; Colombia won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Colombia hosted Costa Rica on 1 June (International Friendlies) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded. France travelled to face Colombia (International Friendlies) on 29 March. For Colombia, the score was 1-3: one goal scored, three allowed. 1-2 was Colombia's result against Croatia on 26 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; Colombia lost, with one scored to two conceded.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Colombia 18th after one match and three points.
Congo DR: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; four goals scored, four conceded. Portugal were their latest opponents, away on 17 June: a 1-1 draw.
Congo DR visited Portugal on 17 June (World Cup) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Chile travelled to face Congo DR (International Friendlies) on 9 June. For Congo DR, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 0-0 was Congo DR's result against Denmark on 3 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Congo DR drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 25 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Congo DR with Bermuda. Congo DR won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing away from home against Algeria (Africa Cup of Nations), Congo DR finished 0-1 on 6 January. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Congo DR 32nd after one match and one point.
After the match
Colombia edged past Congo DR 1-0 at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara on 24 June 2026. Daniel Muñoz opened the scoring 76 minutes into the game for Colombia to make it 1-0. Charles Pickel (93') and Jefferson Lerma (94') were booked. Colombia picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Colombia was three. one yellow card went to Congo DR. Congo DR: five substitutions. Colombia conceded no goals.