1590 plays 1488; the model splits it 52.1% / 24.4% / 23.5%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Congo DR the scoring rate at 0.99, Colombia the conceding rate at 0.77.
1,659 places separate them in the global order. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. The two ratings differ by 102 points. Final score: 1-0. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 13.2%. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 428th and 2087th. Most and least likely outcomes are 28.6 points apart. Win-or-lose totals 75.6%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals 1.22-1.02. One sits in the top 9.6%, the other the top 46.9%. The model's preferred outcome is Colombia at 52.1%. In absolute terms: Colombia 0.92/0.77, Congo DR 0.99/0.99 on attack and defence. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Rounded, that is 1-1. Colombia holds a 27.7-point edge on the next outcome. The Congo DR figure is drawn from 4 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.