A 203-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 65.8% / 20.9% / 13.3% distribution.
4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Higher rating: the home side. Raw profiles are 1.13 and 0.75 against 1.04 and 1.24. By expected share of the points: 76.3% and 23.7%. Portugal is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 1.04 in attack, 0.75 to 1.24 in defence. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.5%. Portugal leads the distribution by 44.9 points over the draw. Portugal carries the largest share, 65.8%. Point estimate: 1-1. Goal expectation splits 1.90 to 1.05. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Versus the 1500 seed: +113 and -90. Only 6 rated matches back the Uzbekistan figure. The match finished 5-0. Win-or-lose totals 79.1%; the draw takes the rest. The distribution runs from 65.8% down to 13.3%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 203 points. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Portugal's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 3 conceded, with no defeats. Congo DR were their latest opponents, at home on 17 June: a 1-1 draw.
On 17 June, Congo DR faced Portugal in World Cup: Portugal drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 10 June brought a home meeting with Nigeria; Portugal won 2-1, a return of two goals scored and one conceded. Portugal hosted Chile on 6 June (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. USA hosted Portugal (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Portugal, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 0-0 was Portugal's result against Mexico on 29 March (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Portugal drew, with zero scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Portugal 30th after one match and one point.
eight goals for and 11 against accompanied Uzbekistan's one win, one draw and three defeats across five outings. On 18 June, Uzbekistan recorded a 3-1 defeat hosting Colombia.
World Cup, 18 June brought a home meeting with Colombia; Uzbekistan lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Uzbekistan visited Netherlands on 8 June (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Canada hosted Uzbekistan (International Friendlies) on 2 June. For Uzbekistan, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 4-2 was Uzbekistan's result against FC Urartu on 30 January (International Friendlies), playing at home; Uzbekistan won, with four scored to two conceded. The 26 January fixture (International Friendlies) paired Uzbekistan with China. Uzbekistan drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two.
Uzbekistan: 42nd, zero points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
After the match
Portugal overwhelmed Uzbekistan 5-0 at NRG Stadium, Houston on 23 June 2026. Cristiano Ronaldo opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Portugal, set up by João Cancelo, to make it 1-0. Nuno Mendes added to the tally in the 17th minute for Portugal to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Portugal extended the lead through Cristiano Ronaldo in the 39th minute, set up by Bruno Fernandes, to make it 3-0. Abdukodir Khusanov (an own goal) scored the 4th goal for Portugal 60 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. Portugal extended the lead late on, in the 87th minute; the match's 5th goal came through Rafael Leão, set up by Nélson Semedo, to make it 5-0. Odiljon Hamrobekov (14') and Renato Veiga (68') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Portugal 203 points stronger than Uzbekistan. 65.8% is Portugal's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. On current ratings the model puts Portugal at around 1.9 gols in this pairing; they scored 5 here. Portugal's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.61 to 0.24. The card tally for Portugal was one yellow card. Portugal made four changes. Nélson Semedo provided an assist following entry for Portugal in the 46th minute. Rafael Leão, on in the 83rd minute, scored in minute 87. The card tally for Uzbekistan was one yellow card. Uzbekistan made three changes. Portugal finished with a clean sheet.