Read this with the sample size in view: Uzbekistan's rating comes from 3 rated matches. The output — 1564 against 1389, splitting 62.3% / 21.9% / 15.8% — is what the model holds, but the confidence behind it is thinner than the decimals suggest.
4 scorelines clear 8% individually. A 3,665-place difference in ranking. Raw profiles are 0.97 and 0.74 against 0.91 and 1.29. By share of the rated field: 13.8% and 96.2%. Portugal is ahead on each half — 0.97 to 0.91 in attack, 0.74 to 1.29 in defence. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 12.4%. Portugal leads the distribution by 40.4 points over the draw. Portugal carries the largest share, 62.3%. Point estimate: 1-0. Goal expectation splits 1.70 to 0.92. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. Global standing: 613 and 4278 of 4,449. Only 3 rated matches back the Uzbekistan figure. The match finished 5-0. Win-or-lose totals 78.1%; the draw takes the rest. The distribution runs from 62.3% down to 15.8%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 175 points. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.