A 177-point edge to Colombia, which the model prices at 15.6% / 21.8% / 62.5%.
Elo expected shares: 26.5% and 73.5%. The four component numbers read 1.04, 1.24, 0.89, 0.72. xG: 1.01 to 1.49. Higher rating: the away side. Win-or-lose totals 78.1%; the draw takes the rest. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.3% — not a strong call. Colombia carries the largest share, 62.5%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -90 and +87. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Colombia leads the distribution by 40.7 points over the draw. 177 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Outcomes span 46.9 points. Final score: 1-3. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Uzbekistan: only 6 rated matches. The two halves pull apart — Uzbekistan better going forward at 1.04, Colombia tighter at the back on 0.72. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Uzbekistan: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; eight goals scored, nine conceded. Netherlands were their latest opponents, away on 8 June: a 2-1 defeat.
Uzbekistan visited Netherlands on 8 June (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Canada hosted Uzbekistan (International Friendlies) on 2 June. For Uzbekistan, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 4-2 was Uzbekistan's result against FC Urartu on 30 January (International Friendlies), playing at home; Uzbekistan won, with four scored to two conceded. The 26 January fixture (International Friendlies) paired Uzbekistan with China. Uzbekistan drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Qatar (AFC Asian Cup), Uzbekistan finished 1-1 on 3 February 2024. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.
Colombia's previous five results comprised two wins and three defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 7 conceded. Jordan were their latest opponents, at home on 7 June: a 2-0 win.
2-0 was Colombia's result against Jordan on 7 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Colombia won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 1 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Colombia with Costa Rica. Colombia won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing at home against France (International Friendlies), Colombia finished 1-3 on 29 March. Their score comprised one goal, against three from the opposition. 26 March: Colombia lost 1-2 against Croatia at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Argentina in Copa America, Colombia scored zero and conceded one on 15 July 2024; the away from home result was 0-1.
After the match
Colombia beat Uzbekistan 3-1 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City on 18 June 2026. Daniel Muñoz opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Colombia, set up by Luis Díaz, to make it 1-0. Abbosbek Fayzullaev levelled it 60 minutes into the game for Uzbekistan to make it 1-1. Colombia regained the lead through Luis Díaz 65 minutes into the game, set up by Gustavo Puerta, to make it 2-1. Jaminton Campaz added to the tally in the 99th minute for Colombia, set up by Cucho Hernández, to make it 3-1. Johan Mojica (7') and Abdukodir Khusanov (34') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Colombia 177 points stronger than Uzbekistan. Colombia won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 62.5%. one yellow card went to Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan: five substitutions. one yellow card went to Colombia. Colombia: five substitutions. Jaminton Campaz, on in the 72nd minute, scored in minute 99. Cucho Hernández entered for Colombia at 80 minutes and later provided an assist.