Small-sample warning: 3 matches for Uzbekistan. Ratings 1389 and 1590, split 13.4% / 21.0% / 65.6%.
Percentile-wise: top 9.6% versus top 96.2%. The four component numbers read 0.91, 1.29, 0.92, 0.77. xG: 0.95 to 1.60. A 3,850-place difference in ranking. Win-or-lose totals 79.0%; the draw takes the rest. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. 0-1 leads the scorelines at 12.5% — not a strong call. Colombia carries the largest share, 65.6%. Worldwide they stand at 4278 and 428 among 4,449 rated sides. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Colombia leads the distribution by 44.6 points over the draw. 201 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Outcomes span 52.2 points. Final score: 1-3. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Uzbekistan: only 3 rated matches. Colombia holds both halves of the profile — 0.92 against 0.91 for scoring, 0.77 against 1.29 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.