Each side owns one half of the argument — Congo DR the scoring rate at 0.99, Portugal the conceding rate at 0.74. On rating it is 1564 against 1488, which the model resolves to 48.1% / 25.3% / 26.6%.
A 4-match base for Congo DR. The scoreline spread is even — 1-0 on 13.2% leads, but only just. The underlying goal expectation is 1.30 for Portugal, 0.99 for Congo DR. 48.1% goes to Portugal, the model's lean. The gap between first and second outcome is 21.5 points, Portugal ahead of Congo DR. Someone wins 74.7% of the time by this model. Point estimate: 1-0. One sits in the top 13.8%, the other the top 46.9%. Between best and worst outcome there is 22.8 points of daylight. Scorelines above 8%: 5. A 76-point spread sits between the two figures. They occupy positions 613 and 2087 in a 4,449-team ranking. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Final score: 1-1. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. In absolute terms: Portugal 0.97/0.74, Congo DR 0.99/0.99 on attack and defence. 1,474 places separate them in the global order.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.