No separation at all — 33.4% / 27.3% / 39.4% across the three results.
72.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Played and finished 3-3. Most and least likely outcomes are 12.1 points apart. They have met once on record — 1982, 0-2 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. Rating separation comes to 21 points. Attack/defence pairs: 0.98/1.15 and 1.07/1.18. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.3%. Its rounded call is 1-1. 39.4% goes to Austria, the model's lean. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Top 63.3% against top 79.3% on percentile. They occupy positions 3530 and 2817 in a 4,449-team ranking. They are 713 places apart on the global list. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Goal expectation splits 1.57 to 1.65. Each side owns one half of the argument — Austria the scoring rate at 1.07, Algeria the conceding rate at 1.15. The leading outcome clears the second by 6.0 points. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Algeria: only 4 rated matches.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.