At 26.9% the draw is close to the most likely single outcome.
73.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Played and finished 3-3. Most and least likely outcomes are 14.3 points apart. They have met once on record — 1982, 0-2 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. Rating separation comes to 33 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.11/1.12 and 1.19/1.12. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.3%. Neither figure is thin: 7 and 12 matches respectively sit behind them. 41.2% goes to Austria, the model's lean. The leading outcome clears the second by 9.3 points. Expected shares 45.3% against 54.7% on Elo. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -22 and +11. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Goal expectation splits 1.68 to 1.80. Each side owns one half of the argument — Austria the scoring rate at 1.19, Algeria the conceding rate at 1.12. Its rounded call is 1-1. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and four against accompanied Algeria's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings, keeping three clean sheets. A 2-1 win away to Jordan (23 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Bolivia on 11 June.
Algeria's away from home game on 23 June (World Cup) ended 2-1 against Jordan, with two goals for and one against. On 17 June, Argentina faced Algeria in World Cup: Algeria lost 0-3 away from home, having scored zero and conceded three. International Friendlies, 11 June brought an away meeting with Bolivia; Algeria won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Algeria visited Netherlands on 3 June (International Friendlies) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. Uruguay travelled to face Algeria (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Algeria, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Algeria stood 35th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from two matches.
Austria's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 10 scored and 4 conceded. Argentina were their latest opponents, away on 22 June: a 2-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Ghana on 27 March.
Against Argentina in World Cup, Austria scored zero and conceded two on 22 June; the away from home result was 0-2. Austria's at home game on 17 June (World Cup) ended 3-1 against Jordan, with three goals for and one against. On 1 June, Tunisia faced Austria in International Friendlies: Austria won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 31 March brought a home meeting with Korea Republic; Austria won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Austria hosted Ghana on 27 March (International Friendlies) and won 5-1; their goals totalled five, compared with one conceded.
three points in two matches put Austria 30th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Algeria and Austria drew 3-3 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City on 28 June 2026. Marko Arnautovic (11') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Austria are 33 points stronger than Algeria. Austria are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Algeria made four changes. Austria: one yellow card. Austria made five changes.