Before the numbers, the caveat: 3 rated matches behind Jordan. On that base the model returns 1415 against 1727 and a 5.7% / 17.1% / 77.2% split.
Win-or-lose totals 82.9%; the draw takes the rest. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Argentina holds both halves of the profile — 1.27 against 0.96 for scoring, 0.87 against 1.17 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 9.9%. The higher-percentile side clears the top 2.6%; the other the top 92.5%. Global standing: 4117 and 117 of 4,449. They are 4,000 places apart on the global list. Result on the day: 1-3. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Outcomes span 71.5 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. Top of the distribution: Argentina, 77.2%. Argentina holds a 60.1-point edge on the next outcome. A 3-match base for Jordan. The rating gap itself is 312 points, which is wide by the model's standards. In absolute terms: Jordan 0.96/1.17, Argentina 1.27/0.87 on attack and defence. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.12 and 2.00.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.