This is one of the wider gaps on the slate: 1740 plays 1416, 324 points apart, splitting 5.1% / 16.7% / 78.3%.
Win-or-lose totals 83.4%; the draw takes the rest. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Argentina holds both halves of the profile — 1.64 against 0.89 for scoring, 0.72 against 1.07 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Flat distribution — 0-2 tops it at just 11.1%. The higher-rated side expects 86.6% of the points; the other side 13.4%. Versus the 1500 seed: -84 and +240. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Result on the day: 1-3. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Outcomes span 73.2 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-2. Top of the distribution: Argentina, 78.3%. Argentina holds a 61.6-point edge on the next outcome. A 5-match base for Jordan. The rating gap itself is 324 points, which is wide by the model's standards. In absolute terms: Jordan 0.89/1.07, Argentina 1.64/0.72 on attack and defence. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.86 and 2.37.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
five goals for and 13 against accompanied Jordan's one draw and four defeats across five outings, a winless run. On 23 June, Jordan recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting Algeria.
World Cup, 23 June brought a home meeting with Algeria; Jordan lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Jordan visited Austria on 17 June (World Cup) and lost 1-3; their goals totalled one, compared with three conceded. Colombia hosted Jordan (International Friendlies) on 7 June. For Jordan, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 1-4 was Jordan's result against Switzerland on 31 May (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Jordan lost, with one scored to four conceded. The 31 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Jordan with Nigeria. Jordan drew 2-2 at home, netting two goals while conceding two.
Jordan: 43rd, zero points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
15 goals for and zero against accompanied Argentina's five wins across five outings, keeping five clean sheets, an unbeaten run. A 2-0 win at home to Austria (22 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Zambia on 31 March.
The 22 June fixture (World Cup) paired Argentina with Austria. Argentina won 2-0 at home, netting two goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Algeria (World Cup), Argentina finished 3-0 on 17 June. Their score comprised three goals, against zero from the opposition. 10 June: Argentina won 3-0 against Iceland at home in International Friendlies, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Honduras in International Friendlies, Argentina scored two and conceded zero on 7 June; the at home result was 2-0. Argentina's at home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 5-0 against Zambia, with five goals for and zero against.
Argentina: 11th, six points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
After the match
Argentina beat Jordan 3-1 at AT&T Stadium, Dallas on 28 June 2026. Giovani Lo Celso opened the scoring in the 19th minute for Argentina to make it 1-0. Lautaro Martínez added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 31st minute for Argentina to make it 2-0. Musa Al Taamari pulled one back 55 minutes into the game for Jordan, set up by Ehsan Haddad, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Argentina extended the lead through Lionel Messi 80 minutes into the game to make it 3-1. Mohannad Abu Taha (17') and Yazan Al Arab (64') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Argentina 324 points stronger than Jordan. 78.3% is Argentina's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Expected goals put the gap at 0.74 to 2.14. The card tally for Jordan was two yellow cards. Jordan made five changes. Musa Al Taamari scored in minute 55 following entry for Jordan in the 46th minute. The substitution total for Argentina was five. Lionel Messi scored in minute 80 following entry for Argentina in the 60th minute.