Honours split: 1.11 forward for Algeria, 1.07 back for Jordan. On rating it is 1416 against 1478, which the model resolves to 28.2% / 25.8% / 46.0%.
Higher rating: the away side. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. In absolute terms: Jordan 0.89/1.07, Algeria 1.11/1.12 on attack and defence. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.3% leads, but only just. Elo expected shares: 41.2% and 58.8%. Jordan's side of that rests on 5 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Ratings sit 62 apart. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The model gives 74.2% to someone winning. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -84 and -22. The leading outcome clears the second by 17.8 points. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Played and finished 1-2. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.34 and 1.60. The distribution runs from 46.0% down to 25.8%. Most likely single result is Algeria on 46.0%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Jordan: two draws and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, 13 conceded, without a win. Austria were their latest opponents, away on 17 June: a 3-1 defeat.
1-3 was Jordan's result against Austria on 17 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Jordan lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 7 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Jordan with Colombia. Jordan lost 0-2 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding two. Playing away from home against Switzerland (International Friendlies), Jordan finished 1-4 on 31 May. Their score comprised one goal, against four from the opposition. 31 March: Jordan drew 2-2 against Nigeria at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Costa Rica in International Friendlies, Jordan scored two and conceded two on 27 March; the at home result was 2-2.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Jordan 41st after one match and zero points.
Algeria came into the game with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring 12 goals and conceding three, keeping four clean sheets. On 17 June, Algeria recorded a 3-0 defeat visiting Argentina; their biggest win in that spell was 7-0 at home to Guatemala on 27 March.
Argentina hosted Algeria (World Cup) on 17 June. For Algeria, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 4-0 was Algeria's result against Bolivia on 11 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Algeria won, with four scored to zero conceded. The 3 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Algeria with Netherlands. Algeria won 1-0 away from home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Uruguay (International Friendlies), Algeria finished 0-0 on 31 March. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 27 March: Algeria won 7-0 against Guatemala at home in International Friendlies, scoring seven goals and allowing zero.
Algeria: 44th, zero points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
After the match
Algeria edged past Jordan 2-1 at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area on 23 June 2026. Nizar Al Rashdan opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Jordan, set up by Musa Al Taamari, to make it 1-0. Nadhir Benbouali levelled it 69 minutes into the game for Algeria, set up by Riyad Mahrez, to make it 1-1. Amine Gouiri put Algeria in front late on, in the 82nd minute to make it 2-1. Ramiz Zerrouki (44') and Husam Abu Dahab (64') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Algeria are 62 points stronger than Jordan. Expected goals put the gap at 0.63 to 1.89. one yellow card went to Jordan. Jordan: five substitutions. The card tally for Algeria was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Algeria. Nadhir Benbouali entered for Algeria at 46 minutes and later scored in minute 69. The lead changed hands once in the scoring sequence. The winners, Algeria, had been behind.