Sample size is the first thing to note. Jordan carries 3 rated matches, so while the split reads 30.9% / 26.6% / 42.5% off ratings of 1415 and 1455, the confidence is thin.
In absolute terms: Jordan 0.96/1.17, Algeria 0.98/1.15 on attack and defence. The distribution runs from 42.5% down to 26.6%. Jordan's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. The model gives 73.4% to someone winning. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 0.96 versus 0.98 in attack and 1.17 versus 1.15 at the back. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. In the global table that is 4117 and 3530 out of 4,449 rated teams. Percentile-wise: top 79.3% versus top 92.5%. The leading outcome clears the second by 11.6 points. Most likely single result is Algeria on 42.5%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.48 and 1.55. Scorelines above 8%: 3. A 587-place difference in ranking. Ratings sit 40 apart. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.1% leads, but only just. Played and finished 1-2. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.